FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA/KFTA): With zero storm chances over the next several days, we’re now forecasting a different type of storm. We’re watching for the potential of a “solar storm.” There’s a chance that parts of the Natural State could see the Northern Lights for the third time this year!
Over the past few days, an active sunspot region (AR3842) has been producing increasingly strong solar flares, with the most recent flare reaching X-Class status at 9.1 strength early this morning (the strongest class possible) and a slightly weaker 7.1 a couple of days ago. This produced shortwave radio blackouts over Africa and the Southern Atlantic according to spaceweather.com.
This sunspot region has been very active the past three days as seen below.
Do you still have your solar eclipse glasses that you used during the total solar eclipse from April 8th? Well, they are also good for seeing large sunspots. There are currently sunspots that are large enough to see them with your protective solar eclipse glasses!
So what’s a solar flare? A solar flare is an explosion on the Sun that happens when energy stored in twisted magnetic fields (usually above sunspots) is suddenly released. Flares produce a burst of radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to x-rays and gamma-rays.
Scientists classify solar flares according to their x-ray brightness. There are three categories:
X-class flares are the biggest and rarest; they are major events that can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.
M-class flares are medium-sized; they can cause brief radio blackouts that affect Earth’s polar regions. Minor radiation storms sometimes follow an M-class flare.
C-class flares are smaller with few noticeable consequences here on Earth.
Sometimes these solar flare explosions also release what’s known as a coronal mass ejection (CME). What is a coronal mass ejection (CME)? Sounds scary… doesn’t it?!? A CME is a massive burst of solar wind, magnetic fields, and charged plasma particles being released into space. It’s the CME and charged particles when they interact
If you watch the movie below from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), you’ll see over the past two days two CMEs headed toward Earth.
Much like we forecast the weather on Earth using computer models, “Space Weather” experts also forecast solar storms using computer models like the one seen below.
“The WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms. Solar disturbances have long been known to disrupt communications, wreak havoc with geomagnetic systems, and to pose dangers for satellite operations.” Space Weather Prediction Center.
How will this affect you? Looking at the scale below, a G3 storm is known as a strong storm, which can cause some issues with power stations, some spacecraft operations, some impacts to satellite navigation (GPS) systems, radio, and allow the aurora to be seen within the mid-latitudes.
Now if the forecast is underdone, then we could see this upgraded to a G4 storm, which is known as a severe storm. These can cause some issues with power grids, spacecraft operations, satellite navigation (GPS) systems, and allow the aurora to be seen as low as Alabama and Northern California. It won’t cause you to spontaneously combust (if you’ve seen the movie Knowing).
Forecasting solar storms and aurora is incredibly difficult as there are numerous variables and unknowns when waiting to see how these flares interact with earth’s magnetic field, and how quickly they can reach our atmosphere.
Will we be able to see the Northern Lights in the NWA/RV area? A G3 storm isn’t a guarantee you’ll be able to see the Northern Lights from our region, but it definitely bears watching and looking north this weekend between 10 PM to 2 AM. The weather should be clear and the moon is a thin waxing crescent, which is perfect for viewing conditions. Remember, this is a forecast and as you know it sometimes doesn’t happen exactly as predicted.
What we’ll need to watch for are the Bz levels. If the Bz values (red dotted line) go really low in the negative (meaning pointing south), that is favorable for a strong enough geomagnetic storm to view the Auroras in the low latitudes. Here’s an explanation of the Bz levels Here’s where you can monitor the Bz Levels.
Every CME brings with it some magnetic field from the sun. If that magnetic field points south and brings (-Bz), it opens cracks in Earth’s magnetic field, which allows the solar wind to flow inside and fuel auroras.
On the other hand, when the CME’s magnetic field points north (+Bz), it seals cracks in Earth’s magnetic field, which blocks the solar wind and ultimately quenches storms. A great way to describe this would be like pushing two like-ends of magnets together… they repel each other.
Finally… the Kp Index # is a good indicator if you’ll be able to see the Northern Lights. We will need a Kp Index of at least 8 and most likely 9 to see them in NWA. (Here’s an explanation) and a place to keep track of the Kp-Index value. The forecast calls for a Kp Index of 7, so it’s CLOSE!
So to sum it all up… This is one of the strongest predicted solar storms this year, so it’s a possibility to see the Northern Lights from parts of Arkansas. However, for those who remember the record-breaking solar storm earlier May 10th, this storm is strong, but not quite as strong as that event. The CME that hits has to connect with the Earth’s magnetic field (meaning large -Bz values) and the Kp Index has to hit a value around 9 to see the Northern Lights here, which is a rare event in the mid and especially low latitudes. Hope you enjoyed the science lesson… and we’ll keep you updated on the latest.
For Best Viewing, be sure to be in an area with limited or no light pollution, and if you can’t quite see it with your eyes be sure to try to use a stabilized camera with long shutter speeds between 10-25 seconds, or long shutter speed or “night mode” on your smartphone camera, as your camera will be able to pick up details that the naked eye can’t if the aurora is faint. Make sure you turn your phone sideways for horizontal pictures!
If you’re able to see the aurora borealis over Northwest Arkansas this weekend, share your photos with the link here: https://www.nwahomepage.com/submit-your-photo/ or scan the QR code.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
