The Black Sea has recently become one of the world’s most important dynamically shifting geostrategic maritime areas, with Ukraine playing a crucial role in upending the naval balance of power there. Ukraine’s efforts to push back against Russia, bolstered by Western military aid, have challenged the status quo and reshaped the region’s security landscape. According to observers, Ukraine, despite its limited naval capabilities, has halved the Russian Black Sea Fleet since Feb. 22, 2022, reducing it from 80 warships to 40, thanks to the successful use of unmanned drones and shore-launched cruise missiles. This loss of at least 40% of Russia’s naval tonnage has significantly diminished its operational capability, forcing many vessels into long-term repairs. As a result, Russian naval activity has been curtailed to limited operations from Crimea, with essentially no presence left in the western Black Sea.
Ukraine’s asymmetric naval strategy: Punching above its weight
Ukraine’s innovative approach to asymmetric naval warfare is a significant development in the Black Sea conflict. Backed by Western military assistance, Ukraine has successfully restricted the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s operational freedom. This accomplishment is remarkable, considering Ukraine’s navy was almost entirely wiped out in the beginning phase of the 2022 full-scale invasion by Russia and given the latter’s already-superior naval capabilities and historical regional dominance.
Ukraine succeeded by using asymmetric tactics, such as anti-ship missiles, unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), and land-based missile systems. These tools, many of which have been supplied by Western allies, have enabled Ukraine to target high-value Russian naval assets without engaging in direct ship-to-ship combat. For example, the sinking of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, Moskva, by Ukrainian Neptune missiles in April 2022 was a symbolic and operational blow to Moscow. This attack, near Snake Island, demonstrated Ukraine’s capacity to strike Russia’s naval superiority and disrupt its operations in the Black Sea.
Critical Ukrainian weapons systems include Western-supplied Harpoon missiles, which have been crucial in targeting Russian ships and logistical hubs along the Black Sea coast. These missiles, launched from mobile platforms or coastal batteries, have proven highly effective in weakening Russia’s supply lines and operational reach. In addition, sea drones have played a crucial role in Ukraine’s strategy, as demonstrated by their attacks on Russian warships like the August 2023 strike on the landing vessel Olenegorskiy Gornyak. These unmanned and standoff systems offer a cost-effective and efficient method to disrupt Russian naval operations without risking Ukrainian personnel.
The strategic use of long-range missile systems such as the Storm Shadow and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), provided through Western aid, has significant bolstered Ukraine’s military capabilities. Although these systems are mainly intended for land-based operations, Kyiv has employed them to target Russian coastal-defense installations and crucial military infrastructure in Crimea. This has reduced Russia’s control over the Black Sea. Likewise, the capacity to launch attacks deep into Russian-occupied territories has degraded Russia’s ability to maintain a secure naval presence and protect its vital assets.
Major attacks on Russian naval forces: Turning the tide
The weakening of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet can be attributed to a series of critical attacks carried out by Ukraine, which have reshaped the dynamics of the conflict. Some of the most essential operations include:
- The sinking of Moskva (April 2022): The loss of the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, was a significant blow to Russia both militarily and symbolically.
- Attack on Sevastopol Shipyard (September 2023): Ukraine’s missile strike on Sevastopol severely damaged the landing ship Minsk and the submarine Rostov-on-Don, set the port on fire, and caused heavy casualties among Russian personnel.
- Strike on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters (September 2023): This missile strike represented another significant blow to Russia’s naval command structure, further limiting its operational capabilities.
These attacks, along with others, have not only weakened Russia’s Black Sea Fleet but also compelled Moscow to revise its naval strategy. According to the US Naval Institute, the Black Sea Fleet has assumed a more defensive stance, moving many of its ships to safer ports in the east, like Novorossiysk. The loss of crucial assets, combined with the constant threat of Ukrainian attacks, has significantly diminished Russia’s capability to exert influence in the Black Sea, tilting the conflict dynamics in favor of Ukraine in the maritime domain.
The decline of Russia’s naval capabilities has had significant implications for the region, especially for Ukraine’s Black Sea neighbors, Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria.
Turkey’s strategic influence in the Black Sea has increased significantly, as the diminished Russian naval presence has allowed it to play a more pivotal role in regional security and diplomacy. This shift has also improved Turkey’s security environment around its maritime borders, enabling it to focus on broader regional stability and other strategic priorities. Economically, the decline in Russian dominance has opened avenues for energy exploration and maritime trade, allowing Turkey to pursue projects with fewer external pressures. As a result, Turkey’s role within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been reinforced, fostering stronger military cooperation with allies — including the formation of a tripartite Black Sea anti-mine task force with fellow littoral allies Bulgaria and Romania — and bolstering its own defense initiatives.
With Russia’s reduced naval power, Romania and Bulgaria have gained more control over their exclusive economic zones (EEZs), crucial for energy exploration and trade.
Romania has taken advantage of the declining Russian influence, and thus improved local security environment, to expand its energy exploration in the Black Sea, mainly focusing on its offshore natural gas reserves. The port of Constanța has also become a critical hub for Ukraine’s grain exports, offering an alternative to the heavily contested Black Sea routes. Since its establishment in 2023, this grain corridor, which hugs the sea’s western coast, has allowed Ukraine to maintain a consistent flow of exports. This has been essential not only for Ukraine’s own economy but also for maintaining global food security, especially in regions that rely on Ukrainian grain, such as Africa and the Middle East.
With the support of NATO, Romania has taken measures in recent years to further bolster its maritime defenses and ensure long-term stability in the region. In particular, Romania has fortified its coast by installing advanced anti-ship missile systems, further establishing its key Black Sea security role.
Bulgaria has also benefited from the improved security environment in the Black Sea. The stability of the region has attracted foreign investments, bolstering tourism and economic growth through infrastructure and energy projects, which have created jobs and fostered development. Improved security has also enabled Bulgaria to diversify its energy sources and reduce reliance on Russian supplies, thereby increasing energy security. While stronger regional cooperation with the navies of Romania and Turkey has enhanced joint efforts in maritime security and environmental protection. At the same time, Bulgaria has built up its military capabilities by upgrading naval and air-defense systems to respond to evolving security dynamics. These changes have strengthened Bulgaria’s position within NATO and the European Union, allowing it to contribute more effectively to regional security and to benefit from collective defense measures.
The strategic value of Western naval support
Though these beneficial geostrategic shifts in the Black Sea have been dramatic, Ukraine needs sustained Western support to be able to continue to protect its territorial waters, hold the Russian Navy back, and ideally reclaim Crimea. Experts from the Wilson Center and the European Council on Foreign Relations suggest that providing Ukraine with retired Western naval assets, advanced training, and logistical support could significantly improve its maritime capabilities beyond being able to maintain asymmetric deterrence. This would permit Ukraine to shift in the future from a defensive stance to take on a more stabilizing role in the region. Moreover, the likely post-war inclusion of Ukraine in NATO and its naval modernization would strengthen the alliance’s southeastern flank, helping ensure collective security interests in the Black Sea region are upheld.
A stronger Ukrainian navy that has been incorporated into the alliance would enhance NATO’s unified presence in the region, aligning with NATO’s broader strategic goal of promoting stability across this crucial area. This could also open up new possibilities for cooperation with neighboring allies Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria in protecting important maritime routes and resources, thus helping to address any deviations from collective interests, as occasionally observed among some Black Sea countries.
Conclusion: Ukraine’s enduring role in Black Sea security
Ukraine’s role in the Black Sea conflict extends beyond defending its sovereignty. The country’s innovative use of asymmetric warfare, supported by Western military aid, has diminished Russia’s naval capabilities and established Ukraine as a pivotal player in the Black Sea security architecture. And by effectively countering Russia’s naval power, Ukraine has reshaped the strategic landscape of the Black Sea, creating new opportunities for regional cooperation and security. The weakening of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has opened vital maritime routes as well as helped countries like Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria to secure their economic and strategic interests.
Continued Western backing for Ukraine’s naval forces, however, will be crucial as the conflict develops to ensure long-term stability. A stronger Ukrainian navy, supported by Western assets and expertise, could help stabilize the Black Sea, prevent future aggression, and safeguard European security. Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russian aggression highlights the importance of a united and strategic approach to Black Sea security, with Ukraine at its center.
Yuri Lyashenko is a Master of Public Administration (MPA) candidate at Baruch College. He holds a PhD in Political Science and is currently a fellow at the National Democratic Institute in Washington, DC. Yuri has played a key role in transforming Kyiv public television into a major news network and has extensive experience in the media across Central and Eastern Europe with a strong interest in geopolitical and foreign policy analysis.
Photo by the Russian Ministry of Defense via the US Naval Institute
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