Record outside spending floods Arizona legislative races as Dems make their play for a majority

In a move that underscores the high stakes of Arizona’s legislative elections, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee announced today it will pump nearly $1 million into targeted races across the state, adding to the $8.5 million that’s already been spent by outside groups in a handful of key districts. 

The DLCC’s investment, part of a larger $2 million ad buy split between Arizona and Pennsylvania, aims to flip both chambers of the legislature to Democratic control for the first time in nearly 60 years. This latest spending push is the DLCC’s first directly trying to influence voters, though it has previously spent about $350,000 supporting Democratic candidates. 

“Control of Pennsylvania and Arizona’s legislatures will come down to just a handful of votes, and abortion could be the driving message that determines who wins in November,” DLCC Communications Director Sam Paisley said in a written statement.

The focus on abortion rights aligns with a key theme Democrats are emphasizing this cycle, especially with a constitutional amendment guaranteeing reproductive rights on the Arizona ballot in November.

An Arizona Mirror analysis of independent expenditure data reveals that the infusion of outside money has created a slight overall advantage for Democrats in the most competitive districts. Across 11 key races examined, pro-Democrat IEs totaled about $4.67 million, compared to $3.87 million for pro-Republican efforts.

Notably, the outside spending in these targeted races significantly outpaces the candidates’ own fundraising efforts. For instance, in the hotly contested Legislative District 13 House race, outside groups have spent over $1.6 million to sway voters in the Chandler-based district, more than double the combined $826,310 raised by the four candidates — Democrats Nicholas Gonzales and Brandy Reese and Republicans Jeff Weninger and Julie Willoughby — in that race.

Similarly, in the Senate race for District 2, which includes much of north Phoenix, outside spending has reached nearly $1.42 million, dwarfing the $841,000 raised by GOP Sen. Shawnna Bolick and her Democratic challenger, Rep. Judy Schwiebert — a figure that itself is staggering and far beyond what legislative hopefuls have traditionally raised in Arizona. This pattern repeats across most of the targeted races, highlighting the outsized influence of independent expenditures in shaping these contests.

The data shows some intriguing patterns in the outside spending:

• The most expensive race is in Legislative District 13’s House contest, where combined IE spending has exceeded $1.6 million.
• Senate races generally favor Republicans in IE support, with pro-GOP spending leading in three out of five key Senate races.
• House races have seen more pro-Democrat IE support, with four out of six key races favoring Democrats in outside spending.

The top outside groups spending in battleground legislative races are:

• Future Freedoms ($2.3 million), which is supporting Democrats
• Responsible Leadership for AZ ($1.5 million), which is supporting Republicans
• House Victory Fund ($1.5 million), which is supporting Republicans
• Arizona Senate Victory Fund PAC ($1.3 million), which is supporting Republicans
• Stand For Children Arizona ($1.1 million), which is supporting Democrats

Political observers note that this influx of outside money reflects the competitiveness of these races and their potential to decide control of the legislature.

Earlier this year, Marilyn Rodriguez, a progressive lobbyist and campaign veteran, expressed optimism about Democrats’ chances, telling the Mirror, “We have to work hard, but this is gettable,” referring to winning legislative majorities.

The focus on state legislative races has intensified following Democratic successes in 2022, when the party won all top statewide offices, including the governorship. Democrats now aim to provide Gov. Katie Hobbs with legislative majorities to enact her agenda.

Republicans, while outspent overall, have had some bright spots. The primary victory of Vince Leach over incumbent Justine Wadsack in a Tucson-area Senate district has boosted GOP confidence in holding that seat.

Following the July primaries, Barrett Marson, a Republican campaign advisor, told the Mirror, “It was probably as good a primary as Republicans could have hoped for.”

As the general election campaign intensifies, both parties are framing the stakes in stark terms. Democrats are portraying their Republican opponents as “extreme” and aligned with MAGA politics, while Republicans are casting their challengers as socialists who are too radical for Arizona.

With millions in outside spending already shaping these races and more on the way, voters can expect an onslaught of messaging in the coming weeks as both parties vie for control of the state legislature in what promises to be one of the most closely watched and expensive legislative elections in Arizona history.