RADAR CHECK: Areas of light rain continue moving across the southern quarter of Alabama this afternoon, but the northern half of the state is dry with sunshine in full supply. Clouds will increase across North Alabama tonight; lows will be in the 55-62 degree range.
The sky will be mostly cloudy tomorrow ahead of an upper trough/surface front, and periods of rain are likely tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow night, and into Thursday (mainly during the morning hours). Rain amounts could exceed one inch for northern third of the state (north of I-59)… for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden amounts will be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range. Totals for South Alabama will be lower; generally under 1/2 inch. Highs will be mostly in the 60s tomorrow and Thursday.
We note SPC has defined a “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms for the southwest corner of Alabama late tomorrow and tomorrow night… heavier storms there could produce strong, gusty winds. A brief, isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Nights will be noticeably cooler with lows mostly in the 40s, but some of the colder spots across North Alabama will reach the mid to upper 30s early Saturday morning. Look for sunny pleasant days with highs in the 60s Friday, and in the 67-73 degree range over the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: The weather stays dry for the first half of the week, but a dynamic weather system will bring some risk of rain and possible thunderstorms to the Deep South by Thursday night and Friday. For now the severe weather threat looks low, and much colder air will arrive Friday as a cold core upper low sets up over the region… See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
TROPICS: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure (now designated as Invest 99L). Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week.
NHC gives the system a 90 percent chance of development; the name will be “Sara”. Most global model ensemble members take the system into the southern Gulf of Mexico, followed by a turn to the northeast, in the general direction of the southern Florida Peninsula. Intensity guidance suggests Sara has potential to become a significant hurricane, but it is way too early to know the track or intensity, or the specific impact on any part of Florida.
There is a very high probability Sara remains well to the south of the Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach). Once the system becomes organized and we begin to get data from hurricane hunter aircraft we will be able to bring you a track and intensity forecast. Stay tuned.
ON THIS DATE IN 1970: The deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded, and one of the deadliest natural disasters in modern times occurred on this day in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. The Bhola Cyclone first formed over the Bay of Bengal on November 8 and traveled north. This cyclone reached peak intensity, Category 3, on the 11, and made landfall on the coast of East Pakistan the following afternoon. The Bhola Cyclone killed an estimated 500,000 people.
Look for the next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama’s Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos
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