Rafael nearing hurricane strength with Florida to Texas now in the 'cone of uncertainty'

NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Tropical Storm Rafael is on the verge of becoming a hurricane as it moves through the Caribbean and toward the Gulf of Mexico.

According to U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunters, Rafael’s intensity has increased with maximum sustained winds at around 70 miles per hour.

Rafael is currently moving northwest at 15 mph, steered by an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic. This ridge of high pressure is expected to guide Rafael generally northwestward over the next day or two, with the center of the storm forecast to pass close to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

Between two to three days from now, forecast models suggest Rafael may take a more westward turn as high pressure builds further west along the northern Gulf Coast. After this period, the storm’s path becomes less certain, with models split on where it may go and how strong it may be.

Some forecast models, like the GFS, show a weakened ridge of high pressure that would allow a northward turn, while others, including the European model (ECMWF), indicate a stronger high pressure system favoring a westward track. Until there’s a more definitive trend in the models, the forecast cone shows a slow northward turn over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

With an inner wind core now in place, Rafael is likely to strengthen quickly over the next 24 hours. It is expected to reach hurricane strength within the next few hours as it moves through the Cayman Islands and may intensify further before reaching Cuba.

Once the storm moves north of the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael is expected to encounter strong wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea temperatures, likely causing the storm to weaken and gradually dissipate.

The National Hurricane Center says it remains too early to determine any potential impacts Rafael may bring to the northern Gulf Coast.

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