WHAT PATRIOTS CAN DO
The Patriots’ biggest value is countering high-flying tactical ballistic missiles. Russia has not used many ballistic missiles in its war on Ukraine, but that could change if it does acquire them from Iran.
The Patriots have proven very effective in Saudi Arabia against Iranian-design ballistic missiles fired from Yemen.
Against cruise missiles and drones, Williams points out, Patriots have limited value because their radar systems only cover a 120 degree portion of the horizon, unlike the 360 degree coverage of NASAMs.
“In the kind of environment we’re seeing in Ukraine, where threats can come in from multiple directions, you either have to have more radars or more batteries,” said Williams.
If the US gives Ukraine the longer-range PAC-2, he said, the likely target is the current cruise missile and drone threat. PAC-3s will indicate the focus is ballistic missiles.
The number of batteries the US will supply at first, he said, is likely to be just one or two. Training takes time, and US forces don’t have many if any spare systems. Washington might have to coax batteries from one of the 17 countries which have them.
Then the question is where to put them: one battery could defend a city, or a power station, but not a broad swathe of territory.
“You have to decide what you’re going to defend. You have to prioritize. It’s not going to defend the whole country,” said Williams
Another limiting issue is the cost: an individual Patriot missile runs about US$3 million, triple the price of a NASAM missile.
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