The quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics,” is most often credited to British statesman Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881). I remembered this quote after reading a recent newspaper article, where the reporter attempted to make a convincing argument that crime is down in Connecticut by citing statistics and interviewing a University of New Haven professor (who previously served as a Democrat member of the Connecticut House of Representatives from 1986 until 2011).
The article poo-pooed the polling numbers cited by Ben Proto, the current Connecticut Republican party chairman, who stated it is “…one of the top three or four issues…” that citizens are most concerned about. But the Pew Research Center reported that in 2022, “Around six-in-ten registered voters (61%) say violent crime is very important when making their decision about who to vote for in this year’s congressional elections.”
This is the same argument often used to quash debate about today’s economy. “Inflation? Nonsense, we’ve always had inflation! Higher fuel prices? Gas prices are going down! Grocery costs? Food has always been expensive!” The problem is — just like with crime — no reasonable, clear- minded person actually believes it. We believe what we experience, what we see, what we hear.
The murkiness of recent crime statistics is due to several things. Here is one such thing reported by The Marshall Project:
“The uncertainty largely stems from the fact that 2021’s data was more incomplete than any in recent memory. Comprehensive FBI data depends on law enforcement agencies’ (there are about 18,000 in the U.S.) voluntary submissions. This year about 7,000 police agencies, covering about 35% of the U.S. population, were missing.”
Two of the largest police departments in the country — New York City and Los Angeles — failed to report their crime stats. Furthermore, according to the article: “Some entire states, including California and Florida, sent virtually no data.”
Sean Kennedy and Mark Morgan (a former Assistant FBI Director) published an article in The Washington Examiner in 2024 titled “Bad Data From The FBI Mislead About Crime:”
“In reality, violent crime is up substantially from 2019 levels. In big cities, murder is still elevated — up 23% since 2019 across all 70 cities tracked by the MCCA (Major Cities Chiefs Association) and up 18% according to a 32-city analysis by the nonprofit organization Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ). For aggravated assaults, CCJ’s 25-city sample found those up 8%, while the MCCA larger sample of cities reported a 26% increase over the same period.”
With regard to Connecticut, the statistics cannot be trusted because of the way in which crime is (or isn’t) reported. I am in touch with many police officers all over the state who have confirmed this. Many victims of car break-ins don’t bother reporting the crimes if their vehicles weren’t heavily damaged or if nothing of significant value was stolen. Further, when thieves target numerous vehicles in a parking lot, a commercial garage, or a residential street, often only one complaint number is issued for the incident. This means 20 cars may have been burglarized, and it is statistically reported as a single incident. This tamps down the numbers for that city or town.
The same applies to shoplifting. Many chain stores and franchises have policies in place that prohibit store employees from intervening in shoplifting and theft incidents. Does that mean retail theft is down? Of course not. Just the reporting of the thefts is down. This statistic becomes meaningless when it is reported by law enforcement, since it does not reflect actual crime or accurate crime reporting.
This same game is played routinely with motor vehicle offenses. Who in their right mind thinks there are fewer dangerous drivers on the road today than ever? When we look at the number of traffic tickets issued and arrests made for impaired driving, speeding, or reckless operation, the numbers don’t reflect that. Why? Because according to the CT Data Collaborative: “In 2022, a total of 313,346 traffic stops were conducted by police departments in Connecticut. This represents a 39% decrease in traffic stops compared to 2019.”
When you reduce traffic stops by almost 40 percent, you obviously decrease the number of infractions issued and arrests made. This does not mean the number of violations themselves has decreased, just the recording and reporting of those violations have.
Consider the numerous street takeovers we have all witnessed throughout our state. The most recent one was in September on 2024, involving more than 100 motorcycles. According to the New Haven Independent, these vehicles were: “…performing various stunts and blocking all travel lanes on I‑95 Southbound in the New Haven, West Haven, Orange, Milford, and Stratford area.”
It gets better. When police attempted to stop a pickup truck that was leading the pack while filming the stunts, the article reported:
“Simultaneously, a number of motorcycles began to surround the Trooper’s cruiser, intentionally interfering with the Trooper’s efforts to stop the GMC and at times almost striking the cruiser. The operator of the GMC failed to stop and continued to travel Southbound on I-95 at a high rate of speed. To avoid a potential risk to the public and involved parties, the Trooper deactivated their cruiser’s emergency lights and siren and disengaged from the vehicle.”
The truck was eventually located and stopped in New York state and two men were arrested. In a single incident, more than 100 vehicles broke multiple traffic laws repeatedly throughout numerous towns, and zero tickets were issued. None of this will ever be reflected in any statistics.
While we’re still throwing statistics around, here is another interesting one that may help explain why it is reported that violent crime is down. This stat courtesy of the Connecticut Office of Policy Management (OPM). “Nationally, crime continues to be under-reported, with only an estimated two in five (42%) violent victimizations reported to police in 2022.”
And if crime in Connecticut really is down, why does OPM report: “6% more criminal cases were added to the Geographical Area (GA) courts in 2023 compared to FY2022.”
I conducted an internet search of murder in Hartford. Here is what came up on the first page of my search: “Top stories of 2021: Hartford Has Deadliest Year Since 2003” (Hartford Courant); “At 35 Killings, Hartford 2022 Homicide Total Most in 19 Years” (CT Insider); Hartford Grapples with City’s 8th Homicide in 10 Days” (CT Insider, 2023). Do those headlines reflect a downward shift in violent crime?
And if you think you are safer because you are lucky enough not to call Hartford home, this just happened to a 22-year-old kidnap victim in the shoreline community of Branford in September, according to Fox 61 News:
“The victim’s hair was lit on fire, his back was sliced with a knife, and he was shot several times with a BB gun, all over the course of three hours, according to police. There is also evidence that he was sexually assaulted, police said. When officers interviewed the victim at Yale New Haven Hospital, they said his eyes were swollen shut, his front teeth were missing, and he was being treated for lung damage.”
Fortunately, three people were arrested for this heinous brutality, one adult (from Hartford) and two juveniles.
Call me a skeptic, but it will take more than cherry-picking numbers from flawed statistics and conflicting data to convince me crime is down. Seeing is believing, and everything I watch on the news or read online tells me crime — in Connecticut and nationally — is on the rise.
(Note: I wrote this article on September 30; the FBI corrected their statistics on October 16, showing that violent crime has actually increased — not decreased — as it previously reported.)
Greg Dillon was a 30-year career law enforcement officer who lives in Connecticut and is the author of The Thin Blue Lie: An Honest Cop vs. The FBI.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
