Jumbo Package: Can Tide avoid a letdown vs Vandy?

Happy Friday, everyone. As you know, Alabama will look to stay hot on the road tomorrow, at Vanderbilt. This one doesn’t carry a ton of national intrigue, so the previews are somewhat sparse. Here’s what we have.

Alabama has to screw up.

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It’s not enough for Vanderbilt to be error free. It needs at least two takeaways. The team is 2-0 when it won the turnover margin and 0-2 when it didn’t.

The Alabama defense came up with multiple takeaways in three of the four games. The outlier was the win over USF which was still close until a late explosion, and that might be this.

Vandy will have a few nice moments, and then reality will kick in.

Alabama 42, Vanderbilt 13

No. 1 Alabama at Vanderbilt (4:15 p.m., SECN). Last we saw Vanderbilt, the Commodores were nearly knocking off Missouri on the road. They have overachieved against SP+ projections by at least three touchdowns on three occasions and underachieved by such a margin once. They are unpredictable … but this series usually isn’t: Bama has won the past three games by a combined 148-3. A Bama hangover and Vandy upset bid would set an incredible tone for a wild October. I’m not counting on it.

Current line: Bama -22.5 (down from -24.5) | SP+ projection: Bama by 23.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 22.3

No. 2 Alabama 45, Vanderbilt 10: In the days following Alabama’s dramatic win against Georgia, the Crimson Tide coaching staff preached Vanderbilt as a “rat trap” game, one that deserves all of the team’s attention. Expect for Alabama not to miss a beat against the Commodores with Jalen Milroe, Ryan Williams and company picking up right where it left off in the final moments against the Bulldogs.

It’s possible that the Crimson Tide could face a bit of a letdown game, but Vanderbilt isn’t factoring that into its preparations.

Led by quarterback Jalen Milroe, Alabama has five top-100 prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft, according to Pro Football Focus. That list also includes three offensive linemen and a safety.

Milroe is also one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy, with 964 passing yards and 10 touchdowns to go along with 273 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.

Alabama 48, Vanderbilt 14: There are a few games on Vanderbilt’s schedule that are a big uphill battle, and this is one of them.

I think everyone will be looking for the same things in this one, at least from Alabama’s persepective. Can the Tide avoid an emotional letdown coming off the big win over Georgia, and a week when they’ve had lavish praise heaped upon them? This Vandy team is plucky enough to cause problems if the Tide’s execution isn’t what it needs to be, and the quarterback in particular is a pain to defend.

Assuming that Alabama does come to play, I’ll call this one 45-13. Of course, that is merely my opinion. Vote and give us yours in the comments.

Colin Gay has a little series history for you. It’s been a minute since the Tide lost in Nashville.

Alabama vs Vanderbilt: When was the Crimson Tide’s last road loss to the Commodores?

Alabama’s most recent loss to Vanderbilt in Nashville came in the 1969 season, when the Crimson Tide finished 6-5 overall.

The Commodores were the Crimson Tide’s first loss of the season after wins against Virginia Tech, Southern Miss and Ole Miss. Vanderbilt secured the 14-10 win vs. Alabama with a fourth-quarter touchdown from Watson Brown to Jim Cunningham.

Watson Brown went on to become the first head coach in NCAA history to lose 200 games. He also beat Nick Saban and spoiled LSU’s 2000 homecoming game.

Last, Deontae Lawson is enjoying the new defensive scheme, which allows linebackers to be more disruptive in passing lanes.

It took him a few seconds to think about, but as a sheepish grin spread across his face, Alabama linebacker Deontae Lawson admitted that he enjoys playing in the new defensive scheme under defensive coordinator Kane Wommack than under Nick Saban’s the last three years.

“With Coach Saban’s scheme, it was more like match coverage. So you would eventually have a man throughout the play. And with Coach Wommack’s defense, it’s more vision coverage and zone. It allows you to have to have vision on the quarterback and react off him. I think for me being a linebacker for this defense, it’s just a defense for me to make plays in, and I like that a lot.”

That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.

Roll Tide.