Many Sixers fans have been rooting for the team to lose games for weeks, if not more. With a top-six protected first-round pick hanging in the balance, every loss the Sixers accumulate between now and the regular season finale in one month from Thursday will help them as they hope to avoid their premium draft choice belonging to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
But for the lot of tank supporters, Wednesday’s game meant more. The Sixers were in Toronto to face the Raptors, one of their two main adversaries in terms of securing ideal positioning in the draft lottery next May. Without any games remaining on their schedule against the Brooklyn Nets, the most meaningful games for the Sixers to lose before the end of the season were their two against the Raptors: the first in Toronto on Wednesday, the second in Philadelphia at the end of March.
Fortunately for the crowd rooting for them to lose, the Sixers fell to the Raptors, 118-105, on Wednesday. We will get to the basketball itself shortly, but first, what does the loss mean for the future of the Sixers’ top-six protected first-rounder?
What is the impact of this loss?
The Sixers, Raptors and Nets are all in the same region of the draft lottery standings right now, and because of the Raptors’ unfathomably easy schedule during the remainder of the season, the Nets currently feel like a more significant threat to interrupt the Sixers’ potential pursuit of optimal lottery positioning. But because the Sixers and Nets have completed their season series, the Sixers’ two games against Toronto become of the utmost importance.
The Sixers entered the night alone in the No. 7 spot in the lottery, which would require them jumping into the top four in order to hold onto their pick. But by falling to the Raptors, they leapfrogged Toronto and put themselves in a tie with Brooklyn for the No. 5 slot:
| Lottery Standing | Team | Record | Games Back of No. 5 |
| T5 | Sixers |
22-43 | — |
| T5 | Brooklyn Nets | 22-43 | — |
| 7 | Toronto Raptors | 23-43 | 0.5 |
Here are the odds’ of the Sixers’ pick landing in the top six and staying in their hands based on every possible lottery slot (assuming no ties, in which the calculation gets a bit more complicated and will depend on a random drawing to be held at a later date):
| Lottery position | Chance of keeping pick |
| 1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 93.0% |
| 4 | 81.1% |
| 5 | 64.0% |
| 6 | 45.8% |
| 7 | 31.9% |
| 8 | 26.3% |
| 9 | 20.2% |
| 10 | 13.9% |
| 11 | 9.4% |
| 12 | 7.1% |
| 13 | 4.7% |
| 14 | 2.4% |
Given the absurdity of how easy Toronto’s schedule is the rest of the way, the Sixers are now very much in pole position to finish the season with a worse record than the Raptors, and in turn give themselves at least close to a 50/50 chance of keeping their pick. They would need to either jump into the top four or have none of the teams between No. 7 and No. 14 jump them to hang onto the pick in that case, which is a slight unlikelihood from a statistical perspective but close to a coin flip.
The Sixers are back in the same place as the Nets, who despite having very little established NBA talent continue to look competitive against most opponents because of excellent defensive connectivity under rookie head coach Jordi Fernández. Even if their incentive to tank is not as significant as that of the Sixers, the Nets have no reason to aim for wins in the final month of the season and much less active talent on their roster with the Sixers with a bit more challenging of a schedule.
Outpacing the Nets remains the bigger challenge ahead of the Sixers in the tank race, but if they could do it, they would suddenly have a very strong chance of holding onto their pick — two teams would have to leapfrog them en route to the top four for their pick to change hands.
Even if the Sixers cannot defeat the Nets in this tank race, finishing ahead of the Raptors in the lottery standings should be considered a must considering how realistically attainable of a goal it is. The Sixers plummeting from nearly a one-in-two chance of keeping their pick to just under a one-in-three chance would be the latest disaster in a season full of them, and that is what would ensue if they dropped below Toronto.
Odds and ends
Some notes and takeaways from the actual basketball played in Toronto on Wednesday:
• The Sixers and Raptors each posted long inactive lists before this one began, putting many of their eggs in the tanking basket. For the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey (finger/back), Paul George (groin), Guerschon Yabusele (knee) and Kyle Lowry (hip) were all out, in addition to the three players who have already been ruled out for the remainder of the season in Joel Embiid, Jared McCain and Eric Gordon. Yabusele was a late addition to the injury report with soreness in his right knee. According to Gina Mizell of The Philadelphia Inquirer, Maxey will see a hand specialist on Thursday.
Nine players were inactive for Toronto, including star forward Scottie Barnes after initially being listed as questionable and starting point guard Immanuel Quickley, who was out for resting purposes. The Raptors had nine available players; their starting five was comprised of veteran center Jakob Poeltl, two rookies in Jamal Shead and Jamison Battle, a two-way player in Jared Rhoden and a big named Colin Castleton who signed a 10-day contract with the Raptors six days ago.
• Kelly Oubre Jr. was on the Sixers’ injury report for this game for more than 24 hours with the right ankle sprain which held him out of Monday’s game against the Atlanta Hawks. Surprisingly, Oubre ended up being upgraded to available shortly before tip-off. He started alongside Jared Butler, Quentin Grimes, Justin Edwards and another returning veteran in Andre Drummond, who was back in the mix after missing Monday’s game with an illness.
• Just seconds after checking in, Lonnie Walker IV suffered a scary injury when he fell to the ground and the back of his head smacked the floor. Mizell reported from Toronto that Walker passed initial concussion testing, but he was understandably held out for the remainder of the game. After a rough four-game stretch to begin his Sixers tenure, the Reading, PA native has given the team strong minutes. Walker recently notched his first NBA double-double, posting 25 points, 11 rebounds and five assists.
• Grimes continues to play remarkable basketball. On multiple occasions in this one, the Sixers were clearly on the verge of having their doors blown off, and the 24-year-old trade deadline acquisition continued to put his foot down and stage a run, typically single-handedly, to keep his team alive. He did it with shot-making, off-the-dribble scoring and defensive playmaking. He is a wonderful player.
• Two-way point guard Jeff Dowtin Jr. gave the Sixers a major lift in the second half, scoring at will against his former team en route to a new career-high 20 points. Dowtin has generated some momentum for himself again of late, but will only be eligible to suit up for another eight games due to the conditions of his two-way contract. The Sixers would have to waive someone on their standard roster and convert Dowtin to an NBA contract to enable him to play any additional games beyond those eight.
Up next: The Sixers will return home to face the Indiana Pacers on Friday night before embarking on a lengthy road trip.
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(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
