As Europeans worry that the Trump Administration will fold its nuclear umbrella protecting Europe from Russia, France is talking with European countries about extending France’s nuclear umbrella to Poland. Since the 1950s, the United States has kept American nuclear bombs in Europe with the goal of deterring Moscow from making a nuclear move.
Today, America maintains about 100 nuclear bombs in underground vaults at six NATO bases in five countries — Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. In the last two months, though, European confidence in Washington has been shaken. First, there is the Trump Administration’s tilt toward Moscow in the Russia-Ukraine war. Second, there are Mr. Trump’s public doubts about aiding NATO nations in the event of an attack by Russia.
“Sharing nuclear weapons is an issue that we need to talk about … we have to become stronger together in nuclear deterrence,” Germany’s chancellor-elect, Friedrich Merz, said on Deutschlandfunk radio. He referred to France which has 280 nuclear weapons and to Britain which has 225 nuclear weapons. “We should talk with both countries, always also from the perspective of supplementing the American nuclear shield, which we of course want to see maintained.”
While Britain’s NATO weapons fall under the NATO chain of command, France’s nuclear arsenal is independently controlled by the French president. This “force de frappe” dates back to 1959 when the newly-elected president, Charles de Gaulle feared America would get too distracted by tensions on the Korean peninsula to counter a Soviet attack on Europe.
“Within 10 years, we shall have the means to kill 80 million Russians,” the French president said of France’s nuclear deterrent. “I truly believe that one does not light-heartedly attack people who are able to kill 80 million Russians.”
Today, in a turn of the history wheel, Europeans worry that the White House may get too distracted by China to defend Europe from Russia. In a sign of the times, President Zelensky arrives at Paris tomorrow for a Western leaders summit. Designed to line up security guarantees for Ukraine, the meeting does not have a seat for an American.
Increasingly, Trump administration rhetoric condescends toward Europe. On Friday, lead Trump negotiator Steve Witkoff told interviewer Tucker Carlson that Prime Minister Starmer’s effort to assemble a 37-nation Western “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine is “a posture and a pose.” On the continent, commentators call this Anglo-French cooperation NATO’s emerging “European pillar.”
Sunday, as Vice President Vance dispatched his wife, Usha, on a “goodwill visit” to Greenland, a territory of Denmark, he told Fox News that President Trump “doesn’t care about what the Europeans scream at us.”
Earlier this month, Mr. Vance responded negatively to a request by the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, that the Trump administration move nuclear weapons to Poland. Mr. Vance said of Mr. Trump: “I would be shocked if he was supportive of nuclear weapons extending further east into Europe.”
Faced with this rejection, Mr. Tusk said Poland “is talking seriously” with France extending its nuclear umbrella east to Poland. He pointed out that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994. Twenty years later, it was invaded by Russia.
For 80 years, the American nuclear umbrella worked as a promise to protect allies in exchange for not developing their own nuclear bombs. An “interesting question is whether America will stand in the way of allies who decide they want their own nuclear arsenal,” a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Mick Ryan, writes. “The Trump administration has busted so many norms in the past six weeks that the Non-Proliferation Treaty might be just another agreement that can be dispensed with.”
Two weeks ago, President Macron gave a speech inviting other European nations to start a “strategic debate” on using France’s nuclear arsenal as a deterrent to stop Russian expansion into Europe. Poland, Germany, and Latvia praised the idea. Lithuania’s president, Gitanas Nausėda, said: “We have high expectations because a nuclear umbrella would serve as a really very serious deterrent to Russia.”
Hostility came from the Kremlin where spokesman Dmitry Peskov denounced the speech as “extremely confrontational.” Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said the French president’s comments constitute a “threat” against Russia.
France’s renewed focus on Europe comes as the nation withdraws from its former colonies in West Africa. In the last two years, France has closed its garrisons in Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte D’Ivoire, Mali, Niger, and Senegal. With Europe’s largest nuclear arsenal, the largest arms industry, and largest army — 204,000 soldiers — France is well positioned to assume leadership of a post-American, European self-defense effort.
In recent days, Germany and other European nations have laid plans to increase European defense spending by as much as one trillion dollars over the next five years. With this spending, defense advocates say, Europe would be able by 2030 to defend itself against a Russian attack. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen warned last week: “Russia is preparing for future confrontations with European countries.”
To build up European defense industries, most investment is to be local. On one level, this is to standardize production in Europe, where factories currently make 19 different kinds of main battle tanks. On another level, the Trump Administration’s temporary suspension of military aid to Ukraine last month severely shook European confidence in the reliability of American suppliers.
“450 million European Union citizens should not have to depend on 340 million Americans to defend ourselves against 140 million Russians, who cannot defeat 38 million Ukrainians,” the European defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, said last week. “We really can do better. It’s time for us to take responsibility for the defense of Europe.”
Nuclear weaponry is to be a key to defending Europe and Britain, the leaders of France and Britain signaled last week in choreographed press events. On Tuesday, Mr. Macron visited a French air base 75 miles west of Germany. After posing with Rafale war jets and pilots, he said France will invest $1.6 billion to equip its squadrons with the latest nuclear-armed cruise missiles.
On Thursday, Mr. Starmer visited a British shipyard to lay the keel for a new Dreadnought-class nuclear submarine. The new nuclear-armed fleet is expected to cost nearly $50 billion. Both visits were widely covered by national reporters, and both leaders have seen their poll ratings climb.
By contrast, the Trump shocks are eroding European confidence in America. Two weeks ago, a DeutschlandTrend poll of Germans found that 85 percent rated France as “a reliable partner,” and 78 percent gave this rating to Britain. America won such a level of confidence from only 16 percent of Germans.
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