Graphing the Tide vs Mercer: A mostly cupcake-y set of charts

After facing several tough opponents in tight games this year, it feels good to have an FCS week matchup against a feisty but clearly overmatched opponent. The charts this week reflect exactly what you’d expect from a cupcake week blowout.

Box score

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The points and total yards tell the story plainly: when you’re gaining over 500 yards while holding your opponent under 200, you know you’ve got a decisive win. While I typically caution against relying solely on traditional metrics like total yards, sometimes the simple numbers do capture the game’s character. The yards-per metrics follow suit, with Alabama’s YPP being higher and YPR much higher than the Bears’. Plus, the Tide earned triple the first downs.

A few oddities stand out, though:

• Only one sack in the game (Alabama’s), when you’d expect to collect a few more against an overmatched opponent
• Penalty yardage (6 for 60) was better than recent games but still not as clean as Mercer’s 5 for 32
• The Bears had significantly more tackles despite relatively even time of possession, highlighting how TOP can be a deceptive metric
• The yards-per-pass gap was notable but not dramatic – Mercer managed to find some success through the air on a modest 22 attempts
• Alabama went 3-for-3 on fourth downs, though attempting three fourth downs in this type of game raises an eyebrow

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Team Success Rates over time (cumulative)

Now this is domination: Alabama posted 70%+ Success Rates through late in the second quarter while building a commanding lead. This is particularly refreshing since even against overmatched opponents this season, we’ve often seen the Tide hover at lower rates.

While the efficiency did drift down with backups in the game, that first half showed what this team can do when firing on all cylinders. The explosiveness followed a similar pattern, with sky-high rates in the first quarter settling into a still-impressive 20-ish percent by halftime before trailing off.

That said, Mercer showed some fight. They found occasional explosive plays late in the first quarter and actually climbed to near league-average efficiency (42% SR) by halftime. Their numbers drifted down through the second half, settling just above 30% SR with a minimal explosiveness rate – a credit to Alabama’s defense maintaining focus in a relatively meaningless game.

Rushing and Passing Success (cumulative)

Unlike many games this season where the Tide has alternated between rushing and passing success, this week showed remarkable balance. Both phases rose and fell together, ending up quite efficient after dominant first halves.

Mercer’s chart tells a more chaotic story despite fewer attempts. Their ground game was DOA while their passing attack found early success. The rushing rate did climb near league average before getting shut down again late in the first half, ending on a real skid. Their passing game hovered around average efficiency throughout and proved their more reliable option.

Rushing rate (cumulative)

Alabama opened rush-heavy, hitting a 65% rush rate in the first quarter – high even for this run-centric 2024 team. The second quarter saw more passing emphasis, including a five-pass streak with two explosive plays, before reaching halftime at about even.

Post-halftime, there was a natural lean toward the run to burn clock with a commanding lead. Yet interestingly, we still saw enough passing attempts, especially with different quarterbacks cycling in, that the final rush rate stayed relatively balanced for what could have been pure clock-killing time.

Mercer followed a similar pattern, attempting to establish the run early before realizing it wasn’t working and settling into a more balanced approach – albeit on far fewer plays.

Success and Explosiveness by Play Type

The Tide dominated both phases in explosiveness and efficiency, though the rushing vs. passing efficiency gap appears more dramatic than reality. The rushing numbers took a late hit during garbage time clock-burning with backups, but in competitive play, both phases were well-matched.

The explosiveness follows a more familiar pattern from this season: the passing game was significantly more explosive than the rushing attack. The passing explosiveness rate approached 20% between Jalen Milroe and the other quarterbacks – a very strong showing reminiscent of early-season performances.

Play Map: Yards and Result by Play

The Play Map resembles early-season Alabama: explosive and seemingly erratic, like a toddler’s wall art. But this time it wasn’t boom-or-bust – just consistently booming. We saw explosive plays distributed across multiple drives in every quarter, supplemented by enough smaller successful plays in the second half to sustain drives and control possession.

Interestingly, Alabama didn’t have any truly massive plays – nothing like Milroe’s 79-yard touchdown rush against LSU. Instead, the longest plays were three passes in the mid-40s range – great plays, but relatively modest “longest plays” for a blowout win.

Mercer managed just three explosive plays total, with only one exceeding 20 yards: their impressive touchdown catch that represented their lone score.

Success and Explosiveness by Quarter

That first quarter was something else – nearly 80% SR with 20+ percent XR. This staff has shown a knack for strong opening game plans (see Georgia and LSU games), though their in-game adjustment capacity remains an open question.

Notably, Alabama didn’t dominate every quarter. The second quarter shows relatively modest Tide efficiency (40+ percent SR) while Mercer actually moved the ball well, posting an above-average SR on 19 plays. Beyond that outlier, though, Alabama thoroughly controlled the game.

SR, XR, and Play Count by Drive

While the drives chart isn’t particularly revealing this week, it does show some encouraging trends. We saw several sustained possessions, particularly in the second half with drives of 10, 11, 10, and 16 plays. The first half featured drives of 9 and 7 plays, plus several shorter but highly efficient or explosive series.

Mercer’s chart shows some life in that second quarter but tells a grim second-half story: often not even reaching three plays before turnovers or punts ended their possessions.

Success and Explosiveness by Down

I’ve often noted “Milroe Magic” on third downs while expressing concern about over-relying on third-down success. This week, though, we saw strong efficiency across all downs – a much healthier offensive profile.

The defense was particularly suffocating on third downs, holding Mercer to an abysmal 13% success rate.

Success and Explosiveness in the Red Zone

Alabama’s dominance between the 20s shows in both efficiency and explosiveness metrics. But the Red Zone numbers are particularly striking: Mercer recorded zero attempts while Alabama only needed 6 despite scoring over 50 points – a testament to the explosive plays that scored from distance.

Success and Explosiveness by Distance to go

The distance trends are reverting to familiar patterns after last week’s anomaly. Short-yardage success remains strong at nearly 70%, with the usual dropoff in longer situations and that peculiar valley in the 7-9 yard range (Alabama’s anti-sweet spot this season). The high success and explosiveness rates from 10+ yards align with our strong first-down performance.

Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images

Top Rushers

Several backs could claim the image feature this week. Jalen Milroe posted a perfect success rate (6/6), but let’s celebrate Richard Young, who continues to shine in cleanup duty. His 5/7 successful rushes put him near the top of our longest-ever rushers list.

The starting backs had surprisingly pedestrian outings – both Jam Miller and Justice Haynes posted sub-50% success rates even with decent attempt volumes.

We saw some rare appearances: Kevin Riley, Daniel Hill, QB Ty Simpson, and even leading receiver Ryan Williams (who took an early handoff for a score). Kendrick Law tried similar trickery but couldn’t convert his two attempts.

The list even includes some new names like JR Gardner and Michael Lorino III – this might be the longest rushers chart in Graphing the Tide history.

Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Top Passers

While I considered featuring a different quarterback – Dylan Lonnegren showed solid efficiency, Ty Simpson threw two explosive passes in a decent outing, and Austin Mack added an explosive touchdown – there’s no denying Jalen Milroe’s dominance. Leading one of Alabama’s most efficient and explosive halves all season (4 explosive passes, 5 additional successful ones, plus 2 more completions on limited attempts), Milroe claims the image feature again..

Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images

Top Receivers

The receivers list matches the running backs’ impressive length. Though Ryan Williams’s early screen pass and touchdown rush caught attention, Germie Bernard ultimately topped the chart.

It was refreshing to see Kobe Prentice resurface after a quiet season as a veteran receiver. The tight ends showed up too – CJ Dippre with a successful catch, Josh Cuevas hauling in a long bailout from Simpson, and Robbie Outz securing an explosive touchdown.

We also saw spring names reemerge: converted tight end Caleb Odom grabbed two catches, while Rico Scott, Kevin Riley, Bubba Hampton, Jay Lindsey, and Ty Lockwood all made their first appearances in months, if not the season.

It’s refreshing to chart an easy win! The road gets considerably tougher these next two weeks, though hopefully not drastically so. While Oklahoma and Auburn haven’t had stellar seasons, they’re both SEC teams with enough talent and motivation to play spoiler – especially Oklahoma at home, plus Auburn, who’s likely spent their entire season game-planning for Alabama while dropping games to everyone else.

See you next week. Roll Tide!