Giving Away Money: Rivalry Week picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Week 13: 3-2
2024: 47-32

Somehow, we kept our head above water in what was the third-most brutal week of the year for favorites. It wasn’t as bad as Week 13 though…unless you were in the SEC. (Too soon?)

Let’s dive in.

Weekly Post-Mortem

Told ya’

The Hoosiers have been a great story, and they’re coming off a bye to prepare. But the one game they played against a mediocre defense, Michigan completely stymied that explosive offense. And, against a Michigan D everyone has else lit up, Rourke and Co. had the season’s second-lowest completion percentage, second-lowest 3rd down conversions, worst per-play efficiency, and its second-lowest rushing YPA.

In between the first drive aided by 30 yards of penalties, and the last drive that gussied up the scoreboard, Ohio State allowed 37 yards of offense in almost three quarters. That game was far worse of an asskicking than the score reflected.

What tha?

As we did last week with LSU/Florida, let’s single-out an SEC team for shame — in particular the Georgia Bulldogs who made lowly UMASS look competent for three quarters. Absolutely pitiful effort.

UGA has played exactly eight quality quarters of football against Top 10 teams, spread across four games. And the offense has really only looked good in five of those eight. Georgia -47.61, a tasteful 52-3 sort of Kirby score.

The offense again only showed up for half a game, and the defense never did. Ghost of Nick Saban would be rolling in his grade about not playing to The Standard (TM)…or did Kirby not steal that too?

We need to deviate a bit from the usual format. It’s rivalry week, with a lot of razor-thin margins, so there are very few that the numbers “love.” And the biggest spread of the week the numbers liked was Ole Miss (and last night’s Buffalo game — thank you very much for winning me some cash, Buffalo). And Ole Miss will be our Mortal Lock, so no Ginormous Spread. So, we’re going to go with several games we do like, a few underdogs, and a Mortal Lock.

Here ya’ go; let’s make you folks money for the stocking stuffers.

Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet

Liberty -3 at Sam Houston State

As crappy as the Flames have looked almost all season, they find themselves sitting at 8-2, in a three-way logjam for a spot in the CUSACG. But, it will sort itself out nicely here. They hold the tiebreaker over WKU, and with a win they’re in the title game and a rematch against Jacksonville State. A Sam Houston win send Western Kentucky to the ‘ship.

Big stakes. It is also, alas, too close to call. Liberty -2.70

Thanksgiving Bonuses:

• Steer well clear of that Coastal (+1) at Georgia State game too. It may as well be a pick ‘em, and not even fancy math has a handle on what Coastal Carolina will do one week to the next, or whether explosive, scary Georgia State actually shows up. It’s lurking in there, but wholly unpredictable.
• UL -3.5 at Kentucky — The Wildcats lack of offense isn’t the problem. It’s their inability to hang on to the ball and a porous secondary. Bad omen versus a team that forces a lot of turnovers and throws a billion times. Bit of a downer year for the Cards in a wide open ACC. They can rectify that one here. CAUTION: Mark Stoops has fared very well in this series, despite what data suggest. He’s covered both times as a home ‘dog the last decade…and won both outright. In fact, since he rebuilt UK and got them to their first winning season back in 2017, he’s an unreal 6-1 against them overall, with two other wins as a ‘dog OTR. The numbers like the Cardinals (-5.66), but if those trends scare you, they should. I’m probably gonna’ holster my wallet on this one. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, but sometimes it’s a dude shoving a giant hog in your face.

Some We Like

West Virginia at Texas Tech

Joey McGuire went from so fired to a potential 8-game winner in the space of a month. Wild sport, man. Meanwhile, Neal Brown is so fired, and that brings us ever closer to the Rich Rod – Mountaineer reunion. Meanwhile, UMass wants to hire Neal Brown, who’s basically been on the hot seat for five straight year. And that would be a good move for both schools. A gentle euthanasia here should make all of those scenarios infinitely more likely. ‘Eers should be able to move the ball, but WVU’s secondary is almost as bad as TTU’s…without the great offense to go with it.

Toss your tortilla, Texas Tech -6.09

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Utah State +6 at Colorado State

The pass-happy Rams dropped a heartbreaker in Fresno last week, but they’re back home in familiar territory, against a hated rival, and get to face one of the worst secondaries in college football. I repeat with my whole chest: Though not related, the Norvell in Greely has been an infinitely better coach than the one in Tallahassee. From left-for-dead to a likely 8-win season in just one year. Amazing job. Sure, the Rams secondary is still cheeks, and USU has a good balanced offense, but their defense is far, far worse than Colorado State’s is.

Rams get to 8-4 and stay alive for the MWCCG -10.65, albeit barely.

Memphis +14 at Tulane

The Tigers take their traveling roadshow of terrible defense down I-55 to face a team that is absolutely smoking everyone in the AAC this year. I don’t think anyone wants to face the Green Wave offense right now…and the defense isn’t too shabby either. Tulane also leads the nation in covers, with an ungodly 9-2.

I think this is the best pre-Black Friday game, probably. Tulane -16.82

Underdogs With Bite

USCe +2.5 at Clemson

For reasons unbeknownst to the data, the Tigers are favored here. But the ‘Cocks are the more balanced team, the more physical team, the more tested team, and are simply playing better. If Sellers can avoid those weird periods of quick turnovers he’s had, South Carolina should win this one. If they do, then they are very much in a playoff discussion with some other three-loss teams. They would be 4-3 against the Top 30, with the No. 18 SOS. That’s a better resume than a hypothetical three-loss Tennessee team, for instance. This is the nastiest team Clemson has faced since Georgia, and that didn’t pan out very well. Numbers think this one goes a field goal the other way.

Gamecocks….provided, again, that Sellers can hold on to the ball. USCe -2.24

Navy -1.5 at East Carolina

As we said last week of ECU before they absolutely demolished North Texas, why is this team an underdog? They are 7-4, the interim was just promoted to HC after a five-game winning streak. The offense is finally matching the defensive intensity. And, most importantly, the perception of Navy is better than the reality. The Middies have been getting smoked by competent defenses all season (they lost to three best ones, and all by double-digits). And the Pirates are very competent when they don’t turn the ball over. The wrong team is favored, and it’s probably closer to a TD than a FG, too.

East Carolina can get its 8th win here. -6.55

Mortal Lock

Egg Bow’ Mississippi State at Ole Miss -26

Sure, the Bulldogs are playing a lot better lately. And, yes, this series frequently goes off the rails. But, man, that MSU defense is still monstrous, and the Rebels (like the Tide) still have to make their case as a three-loss team — there could be several SEC teams trying to make that case, honestly, including South Carolina if they smack around Clemson. So, dicking around with this awful Clanga team is not how to do it. ‘State gives up the most explosive plays in the SEC, run and pass. Ole Miss generates the most explosive plays in the SEC, run and pass. And Lane frankly has gotta’ gussy this one up for the Boosters, who most certainly did not spend $16 million for an 8-3 season that did not have Texas or Alabama on the schedule. There’s also the matter of a senior quarterback who LMFK is going to let do some sweet NFL Draft and postseason award stat-padding.

Rebels, and by a whole lot. -34.37

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month, though with inflation, that shit is working out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.