Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., closes a door to a private meeting with Vice President-elect JD Vance and Republican Senate Judiciary Committee members, at the Capitol in Washington on Wednesday. J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press
The big moment.
Former congressman Matt Gaetz’s time as President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general has come to an end. It wound up lasting less than a Scaramucci.
Gaetz, R-Florida, announced suddenly Thursday that he’s withdrawing from consideration, amid continued revelations about sexual misconduct claims against him, questions about a looming House Ethics Committee report and resistance from his fellow Republicans.
Both Gaetz and Trump in social media posts claimed that Gaetz was doing well but had become a “distraction” – a PR word that often gets bandied about in untenable circumstances.
But Gaetz’s downfall was about more than a momentary distraction. It was a sizable early setback for Trump, just more than two weeks after his triumphant 2024 election win. It’s also a sign that institutions – or at least a few members of them – can still stand up to Trump, and a remarkably swift conclusion to what could be a series of tussles between Trump and his own party.
Let’s dive into those dynamics and other takeaways.
IT’S A MAJOR SETBACK FOR TRUMP
Gaetz was always going to be a tough sell, even for his fellow Republicans. Just four Republican senators would have been enough to kill his nomination if they voted with all Democrats. And plenty expressed reservations.
There is not much love for Gaetz in congressional Republican circles, dating back to his successful effort to oust then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-California, last year. His baggage was also the most problematic among Trump’s controversial nominees, given that it involved allegations of sex with a 17-year-old – and particularly given the prospect of the ethics report coming out. On Tuesday, I wrote about how Gaetz’s nomination was in the most trouble, full stop. That wasn’t exactly a hot take.
But just because this was predictable doesn’t mean it’s not bad for Trump.
Trump chose to spend some of his earliest post-election political capital on this fight, daring Republican senators to defy him just a week after his election. He chose someone for a prestigious Cabinet department who had major baggage that was obvious to anyone with access to Google. And that gamble quickly fell apart.
The whole thing suggests a very fast-and-loose Trump operation – no surprise if you were paying attention from 2017 through early 2021 – that is going to keep creating problems for the man in charge and his party. That there was apparently nobody around Trump willing or able to caution him against Gaetz doesn’t augur well for what lies ahead.
Trump undoubtedly cares less about the idea that his political capital is damaged than your average politician. He’ll just move on to the next thing. But it can’t help but look like weakness – including to the Republicans he could clash with within the months and years to come.
IT SHOWS THAT INSTITUTIONS CAN STILL STAND UP TO TRUMP
Trump has claimed that the 2024 election gave him a huge mandate – despite him failing to win a majority of the popular vote and Republicans gaining relatively little ground. And Republicans have largely echoed that line. Some have gone as far as to suggest it’s time to just give Trump pretty much whatever he wants, including his Cabinet picks.
We don’t yet know all the details of why Gaetz withdrew and how much the GOP resistance played a role (vs., say, Gaetz worrying about his own personal dirty laundry being aired).
But regardless, this is an early signal that institutions – whether Republican senators, the legal and ethics systems, and/or the media – can still provide a significant check on Trump, if they are so inclined.
We shouldn’t oversell that. As noted, Gaetz was always likely to be a bridge too far. And seeing Republican senators give lukewarm quotes about him and choose to fight against him more privately doesn’t exactly suggest they feel empowered to publicly stand up to Trump. A handful of senators with reservations about Gaetz is far from the entire Senate, even as the opposition was apparently enough to make him and Trump think twice about moving forward.
Still, Gaetz’s failure was an early test of the system. The system didn’t work in Trump’s favor.
And Trump’s critics right now probably undersell how assertive the GOP-controlled Senate, in particular, could be. This is a chamber that features plenty of institutionalists who don’t love the idea of being rolled by the president and forced to do things they don’t like (tariffs, abandoning Ukraine, etc.).
Trump has also signaled he’ll push his political and policy norm-breaking quite a bit further than in his first term. It only takes four Republicans to stand in his way, and there are a fair number of moderates, Trump critics and retiring senators who could do so.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR TRUMP’S OTHER PICKS
When Trump picked Gaetz last week, theories abounded about how maybe this wasn’t all that it seemed – that it wasn’t truly about getting Gaetz installed as attorney general.
A prominent theory was that perhaps Gaetz was a stalking horse. It held that he was a completely unacceptable pick put forward to be rejected and make Trump’s other picks, including his next pick for attorney general, look more acceptable by comparison.
Whether or not that was the intent, the question now becomes whether Gaetz withdrawing will indeed make it easier for Trump’s other picks, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (health and human services secretary), Tulsi Gabbard (director of national intelligence) and Pete Hegseth (defense secretary). Will Republicans view themselves as having beaten back the worst of Trump’s picks and relent on other nominees?
Maybe. But I think the lack of a true, extended fight over Gaetz makes that less plausible. It would be one thing if Republicans fought over Gaetz for months, and Trump supporters were able to send a strong signal that opposing Trump would come with a cost (including public attacks and primaries). Some murmurs of retribution began this week, but the revenge campaign never really took hold.
Now Gaetz will be a distant memory by the time those other nominations get considered, and nobody had to vote against him. You could also make a strong argument that critics of Trump’s picks will be emboldened by beating this one back so quickly.
WHAT’S NEXT FOR GAETZ
Another big question after Gaetz’s withdrawal is what happens to his political career.
He resigned from the current, 118th Congress last week, after all. But the Florida congressman was reelected this month to the 119th Congress and could take his seat come Jan. 3. Republicans will have a narrow majority in which every seat could matter.
Georgetown University’s Matt Glassman has a good look at the legal ins and outs. Basically, it would probably be up to the Republican-controlled House, which can interpret its own rules.
But also, coming back to Congress would almost undoubtedly lead to the release of that ethics report, at which point Gaetz and his fellow Republicans would have to relive all of this drama. And it could involve Republicans voting to reseat a guy they clearly have little regard for and view as a problem for their party.
Gaetz has also been rumored as a potential candidate for Florida governor in 2026. As for whether he could win his party’s nomination and that office? It probably can’t be completely ruled out in a red state.
A MOMENTOUS POLL NUMBER
51-36
That’s the margin by which voters in a new Economist/YouGov poll say they approve of Trump’s handling of his presidential transition. It’s one of the first polls of how people view Trump post-election.
That suggests he’s gotten something of a honeymoon, at least as of Tuesday (when the poll concluded). It also suggests that the major controversies surrounding his Cabinet picks haven’t turned Americans against him.
Or perhaps it’s that people really haven’t tuned in to nomination battles that won’t take place until early 2025. For instance, the same poll asked whether people approved of Gaetz’s selection, and voters were about evenly split – 37% favorable to 39% unfavorable.
Maybe it’s just early and people have political fatigue.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
