Giving Away Money: Week 14 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Week 13: 3-3
2024: 44-30

I’ve been doing this quite a while now, about 20 years, and I’d have to pull down my complete archived datasets from the cloud, but last week had to have cost Vegas an absolute fortune. When it was all said and done, underdogs covered just under 2/3rds of all contests. When your business model relies on taking the 10% from all action, and you are trying to balance spreads to generate 50-50 money on either side of the ledger, that’s a simply dreadful loss for the Family, ya’ know?

I can’t recall another week off-hand where the mobbed-up actuaries were so catastrophically…off. Some weeks you get a bonus house in Aruba; some weeks you wind up duct-taped in the trunk of a ‘78 Lincoln Continental.

We finished at .500, but it was an absolute slog of underperformances (Oregon, lookin’ at you, buddy), defensive collapses (god only know what the hell was going on in the Sun Belt last week), and even outright upsets (Louisville, BYU — and our favorite, No. 18 Wazzu losing to New Mexico, and it wasn’t a fluke either).

This week at least is off to a better start, 3-0 on MACtion for the week. So I think the boys in the banker visors are back on their game. Let’s see if we can exceed them.

Weekly Post-Mortem

Told ya’

Mortal Lock: Hugh Freeze has been bullying bad teams on his schedule to make up for lack of quality play against better teams. And that’s going to be a certainty here this week. I would lose money to watch this upset happen. Alas, Barn -27.35

Only a special idiot like Hugh Freeze would be averaging 9 yards a carry in the first half…and have Payton Thorne throwing two dozen times before the break. At least he covered.

What tha?

Take your pick from the plethora of fresh butt served up last week. But let’s pick on LSU. If they can’t cover, at least they did us the decency of losing outright.

Florida will look a lot more competent than they did last week in Austin, but probably still a 7- or 10-point game here. LSU rebounds…sorta’. Maybe they can return that meth tiger back to the Sunshine State while they’re down there. LSU -7.89

Oh, Florida most certainly did look more competent. Meanwhile, the Tigers imploded, the secondary was awful, and players were screaming at coaches who were screaming at players. Things are going swimmingly in Baton Rouge.

It almost feels like a bye this week for the Tide’s first SEC visit to Norman (and a chance to finally exact some vengeance on that cursed field), but honestly, blame the Sooners poor offense, thin secondary, and unbelievable string of bad injury luck. So, we’ll take what we can get and try to make some money off of them.

And we’re covering some big boys this weekend.

Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet

Barn +2.5 vs Aggie

The SEC didn’t exactly help Aggie out scheduling a roadie to Auburn the week before Texas. This likely won’t be a beating. Auburn has really been hanging on to the ball lately, and they’ve played teams a lot tougher as a result. Their major problem is that “explosive offense” has evaporated against better defensive teams: 14 vs Cal, 13 vs UGA, 17 vs. Mizzou, 7 vs. Vandy etc. So, there’s a reason that 4-6 Auburn has not beaten a team with a winning record yet. The physical, disciplined Aggies are probably not going to be the first pelt they claim either.

Numbers say Texas A&M -6.33, but I’m so deservedly gun-shy about Jordan-Hare voodoo by now, that I probably am staying away from it.

One We Like

Indiana +13 at Ohio State

The Hoosiers have been a great story, and they’re coming off a bye to prepare. But the one game they played against a mediocre defense, Michigan completely stymied that explosive offense. And, against a Michigan D everyone has else lit up, Rourke and Co. had the season’s second-lowest completion percentage, second-lowest 3rd down conversions, worst per-play efficiency, and its second-lowest rushing YPA. Despite the injuries to the Buckeyes OL, including Seth, there are few teams that have stockpiled as much talent as Bama, UGA and OSU. They’ll be okay. And in a game at the ‘Shoe? That is too much to ask for against the most athletic team the Hoosiers see all year — at least until they get blown out by an SEC team in the CFP. Big game experience matters, and Indiana is a good team, but new to this.

Buckeyes beat Cinderella to death with her own slipper. Shade over two touchdowns OSU -15.06

One We Love

Pitt +4.5 at Luhvl

Remember when this was supposed to be a big game…two weeks ago feels like an eternity. Eli Holstein is questionable again for this. And we know there’s a lot of slop behind him for the Panthers. That said, UL has egg on their face, and should you choose to go in on this one despite Holstein’s availability, it’s still the ‘Ville by a TD. Which sounds right, either way.

Louisville gets back on track on Senior Night. -7.60

Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention

UMass +42 at UGA

The ‘Dawgs will be prepping for an actual quality game against mid Ga. Tech next week, but they won’’t need to be too dialed-in for this one. They just need to handle their business against a UMass team that has a starting QB who may be concussed. And Georgia can’t dick around in this beauty contest either; optics matter. Though I loathe UGA vs. huge spreads, and UMass has been semi-competent of late against big numbers, this is a different world of athleticism and motivation in Athens. The Bulldogs will also need to finish getting the wrinkles out of their offense in this semi-bye week. Tech won’t be a cupcake, but there are larger games on the horizon, and UGA has played exactly eight quality quarters of football against Top 10 teams, spread across four games. And the offense has really only looked good in five of those ten.

Georgia -47.61, a tasteful 52-3 sort of Kirby score.

Underdog With Bite

Western Kentucky +1 at Liberty

Anyone else curious why Liberty is a favorite here? The Toppers had a defensive struggle last week against La. Tech, everyone’s favorite one-score PITA underdog. But Liberty’s defense has been downright awful at times this year, and the offense is not close to where it needs to be. The key to beating the Hilltoppers is to shut them down; the Flames have struggled all season with that. The three best passing teams that Liberty faced threw for an average of 280 yards, they netted five TDs, and threw just one pick. WKU’s defensive front isn’t great, so Liberty will have some success. But they’ve been abysmal on third down, and the defense has let them down against quality teams. Big stakes here too: a Hilltopper win sends them to the CUSA CCG against the winner of Jax State / SHSU. Liberty has to have this to mathematically stay alive, but the data don’t think they get it.

Wrong team seems favored here: Western by a touchdown. WKU -6.93

Mortal Lock

Tennessee -41.5 vs UTEP

You could have just as easily put UMass at UGA (-42) here. But we’re going with the team that has to gussy up the scoreboard the most, and the one with the classless clown who won’t hesitate to drop 70+ on terrible teams. Yeesh. Just schedule a respectable FCS team: Mercer is ranked about 30 spots higher than both UT/UGA’s cupcakes are. Vawls need a lot of style points; anyone doubt they get them? I will say, however, UT is not doing wonders with their scheduling perception by front-loading a lot of trash, and then having this turd in the penultimate weekend. They and the Rebels should both be ashamed of that garbage.

UTEP has zero-point-zero percent chance of walking out of this without a 50-point loss. UTEP’s offense is the second-worst in college football; they are in the Bottom 5 defensively and in turnover margin; they are in the Bottom 20 in penalties…and they’re going to Neyland to face a very pissed off, very desperate Tennessee team who has to jack it up. The zebras aren’t going to help their cause either.

Vawls -48.55, I’m thinking something hideous too. Like 69-3

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month, though with inflation, that shit is working out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.