Examining Juan Soto’s potential fit with the Red Sox

Red Sox

If the Red Sox were able to land Soto, they would be able to create some flexibility with their roster.

The Red Sox are making a play for the top free agent on the market this offseason.

Boston met with Juan Soto in Southern California on Thursday, reportedly having a “productive” three-hour session that left the star outfielder “impressed.” While several top members of the Red Sox’ organization were in attendance for the meeting, they didn’t make a formal offer as owner John Henry wasn’t in attendance, according to MassLive’s Sean McAdam.

Soto is reportedly slated to continue to meet with teams through the start of next week. It’s unclear how long he’ll take to make a final decision or even when the next step in his process will be.

But the Red Sox seem to be among the handful of teams in the mix to sign Soto. So, let’s take a look at how he would fit in with the Red Sox between his contract, spot in the lineup, and position on the field along with his potential to hit well at Fenway.

How would Soto impact the Red Sox’ payroll?

Soto is going to get a monster deal that will likely be one of the largest ever in North American sports history and could push the Red Sox to become a luxury tax-paying team again. 

Of course, no one knows exactly what Soto will receive yet. But if we took the contract projections from MLB Trade Rumors (13 years, $600 million), The Athletic’s Tim Britton (13 years, $611 million), The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (15 years, $622 million), and CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson (12 years, $600 million) and averaged them out to try and see what Soto’s deal would be, the contract would approximately be a 13-year, $609 million deal. The average annual value of that deal would be $46.8 million. 

Entering the offseason, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier projected the Red Sox to have roughly $72.47 million in space before reaching the luxury tax threshold. That was before they gave Nick Pivetta the qualifying offer and signed reliever Justin Wilson to a $2.25 million deal. If Pivetta accepted the Red Sox’ $21.05 million qualifying offer ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, Boston would have $49.17 million remaining in luxury cap room, per Speier’s pre-offseason projections. If signing Soto to that aforementioned deal with a $46.8 million cap hit for next season was the next move the Red Sox made, they’d become a luxury-tax-paying team unless they moved off salary.

If Pivetta declines the qualifying offer (which he’s reportedly expected to do), the Red Sox could have an ample amount of cap room to play with before hitting the luxury threshold even if they signed Soto at the $46.8 million cap hit. They’d have $23.42 million in space remaining before reaching the threshold in that scenario, per Speier’s pre-offseason projections. If the Red Sox wanted to sign one of the top pitchers in free agency, they would still likely go over the luxury tax threshold in this scenario. Most projections have each of the top free-agent pitchers set to receive at least $25 million per year in their next deal. 

If the Red Sox aren’t looking to over or too far over the tax threshold, signing Soto could cause them to acquire a top-of-the-rotation player via trade rather through free agency. They’ve already been linked to White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, who is projected to receive just $2.9 million in arbitration for the 2025 season by MLB Trade Rumors. 

There’s also another reason why the Red Sox could examine to acquire a top-of-the-line pitcher through a trade rather than free agency if they signed Soto …

How would Soto would fit in the lineup and on the field?

Soto has primarily hit second in the lineup no matter where he’s been over the last few seasons. If the Red Sox were to sign, you’d imagine that he would wish to continue hitting second. 

As for Soto’s fit on the field, he’s never been a tremendous outfielder. The Yankees played him in right field as right field at Yankee Stadium is relatively small. He still had a minus-5 outs above average last season. With the Red Sox’ primary left fielder (Tyler O’Neill) from last season hitting free agency, playing Soto in left could be a bit of a natural fit. He played left field for the first few seasons of his career with the Nationals and moved back to that spot with the Padres in 2023.

But Soto’s subpar fielding could also make him a candidate to be the Red Sox’ designated hitter. In fact, Baseball America’s Geoff Pontes placed Soto as the Red Sox’ designated hitter in his projected lineup for the team if they signed him. Here’s a full look at Pontes’s projected lineup for the Red Sox in the event they signed Soto:

1. LF Jarren Duran
2. DH Juan Soto
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. 1B Triston Casas
5. SS Trevor Story
6. 2B Kristian Campbell
7. RF Wilyer Abreu
8. C Connor Wong
9. CF Ceddanne Rafaela

In Pontes’s projection, last season’s primary designated hitter Masataka Yoshida moves to the bench while Rafaela would be the center fielder in a move that would maximize the Red Sox’ defensive strength in the outfield. It would also add another right-handed hitter to the starting lineup as the top four hitters in Pontes’s projected lineup are all lefties.

Even though Soto, Devers, and Casas have hit lefties relatively well in their careers (each have a career OPS of at least .750 against left-handed pitchers), having that many left-handed hitters at the top of your lineup might not be ideal. The Red Sox could flip around the lineup and move someone like Story to the cleanup spot instead of Casas to help rectify that.

Boston could also flip one of its left-handed hitters for pitching help. Abreu and Casas have been speculated to be possible trade candidates this offseason, with the former being rumored as the possible centerpiece for a trade involving Crochet.

If the Red Sox signed Soto and hoped to play him in the outfield, Abreu could become a prime candidate to be moved, especially with top prospect Roman Anthony projected to make his debut in 2025. Even though that might not directly fix the potential too many left-handed hitters problem, it would certainly give the Red Sox more flexibility to toy around with their lineup. 

How Soto could become a better hitter at Fenway Park

As he’s spent the vast majority of his career in the National League, Soto hasn’t played too many games at Fenway Park in his career. He only made the trip to Boston three times, playing in nine games at Fenway.

Six of those games came with the Yankees last season, hitting just .182. But he also had a .400 on-base percentage and a .900 OPS as he hit a double and two home runs at Fenway last season. Over Soto’s nine career games at Fenway, he’s hit .216 with three homers and a .842 OPS.

While Soto hasn’t hit as well at Fenway compared to his career numbers, that’s obviously a small sample size and there’s some good reason to think he’d hit even better than usual if he made the ballpark his full-time home considering his pedigree. The five Hall of Fame left-handed hitters who primarily played at Fenway hit much better there relative to the rest of their careers. For instance, Wade Boggs, Carl Yastrzemski, Ted Williams, David Ortiz, and Tris Speaker each had an OPS that was at least 0.050 points higher at Fenway than on the road, per ESPN’s Paul Hembekides.

Soto’s spray chart from his 2024 season also suggests that he would hit incredibly well at Fenway Park. He had 14 hits at Yankee Stadium that weren’t home runs last season that had projected landing spots beyond the wall at Fenway.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Soto would’ve hit 14 more homers at Fenway last season as it’s unclear if some of the ones he hit to left field would’ve cleared the Green Monster. But it gives a good indication of just how well Soto could potentially hit at Fenway Park if he made it his full-time home. 

How much better would Soto make the Red Sox?

The Red Sox haven’t had a hitter like Soto in quite some time. He slashed .288/.419/.569 with 41 homers and a 178 OPS+ last season. Boston hasn’t had a hitter post an on-base percentage, slugging percentage, or an OPS+ that high in a season since Mookie Betts in 2018. It hasn’t had a player hit that many homers in a season since J.D. Martinez in 2018.

Additionally, Soto’s 2024 season would’ve been just one of 10 seasons in Red Sox history where a hitter posted an OPS of at least .985 and hit at least 41 homers in the same year. 

Boston doesn’t necessarily need the hitting help that Soto would provide as it ranked in the top 10 in batting average, OPS, and homers last season. However, signing Soto would give the Red Sox a greater margin for error.

It would certainly provide some relief for Devers as the team’s results would typically mirror his play at the plate. In the 68 games the Red Sox won with him in the lineup last season, Devers hit .328 with 18 homers and a 1.049 OPS. Those numbers took a dramatic drop over the 70 losses that Devers was in the lineup for last season, hitting just .215 with 10 homers and .686 OPS in such games. 

Obviously, you’re more likely to lose games when your best players aren’t playing well. But Soto would provide protection and then some to Devers in games where he doesn’t well at the plate, theoretically lifting the team’s floor and ceiling.