A year ago, LSU sported the best offense in the country with Heisman Trophy QB Jayden Daniels tossing the ball to two superstar receivers, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock had been the OC for Brian Kelly for years at multiple stops, so his departure over the offseason to Notre Dame was something of a surprise, and Kelly promoted up Joe Sloan from QB Coach to OC. Their scoring has predictably fallen back to earth so far in 2024, averaging only 33 points per game after a ridiculous 45 ppg a year ago.
The scheme is much the same as it was under Denbrock: pass-first, lots of mesh routes, sideline comebacks, and sideline shots. The running game is mostly new-age draw plays – outside zones, sweeps, and counters from shotgun, and a fair amount of RB screens. But it’s ultimately a QB-driven offense that gives the QB a lot of leeway to dictate how most plays go.
That QB is Garrett Nussmeier. The son of the former Alabama offensive coordinator, Nuss is completing 62.5% of his passes at 7.9 yards per attempt in his first year as a starter. His 20 touchdowns are impressive, but the 9 interceptions in only half a season is concerning. Essentially, Nuss is a risk-taker. He doesn’t get sacked – he’s great at avoiding pressure, and he will scramble to make throws. A lot of that is him avoiding a rush and hitting a quick curl over the middle, but he’s just as likely to fling one to a receiver on a sideline comeback or down the field. It’s something that can get him into trouble.
The Tigers’ receiving group is a strong one, if a step back from their duo a year ago. Kyren Lacey returns and has stepped up from WR3 to WR1. He’s a veteran with good size, speed, shiftiness, and reliable hands. Essentially, he’s the John Metchie of the group, and has 618 yards and 6 TDs.
Aaron Anderson (former Alabama freshman) has finally found his way onto the field and is the main YAC threat. He’s short, quick, and muscular. He’s not the most traditional receiver and lacks the pure speed to be a great downfield threat, but get him the ball and he’s exceptionally tough to tackle.
Finally, Liberty transfer CJ Daniels rounds out the trio as a veteran with a 1000 yard season to his name last year. He’s got 342 yards on the season, and is expected to be back after missing their last game with injury.
TE Mason Taylor also returns as a major part of the passing game. He’s actually just behind Lacy with 39 catches, thought it’s only gone for 369 yards. Taylor is an impressive athlete that has a couple of seasons of starting experience now, and while he hasn’t been much a big play threat, he’s been ol’ reliable for the LSU passing game.
For all of that, though, the Tigers’ rushing game has been mostly an afterthought. Freshman Caden Durham has 73 carries for 397 yards, but a lot of that came in blowout games, and he’s struggled to get going in bigger games. Veteran Josh Williams returns as well, and the former starter is the same as he was before – lacking in speed or big play ability, but can make the first guy miss in the hole.
The LSU offensive line is anchored by LT Will Campbell, who could very well become the first OL taken in the next NFL draft (I will forever remember him, as a true freshman, as the only player I have ever seen stonewall Will Anderson for an entire game). They’ve got good stats on pass blocking, though a lot of that is also a credit to Nussmeier’s ability to stay away from sacks. On the other end, though, they’ve struggled a lot with run blocking, and can’t be relied on to reliably get yards.
For Alabama’s defense, I don’t think this is a horrible matchup. Kane Wommack’s zone coverage schemes are built to bait QBs, and Nussmeier is a QB that can absolutely be baited. This is also one of the weaker rushing attacks that Alabama has faced this season, and that should give a little relief to the interior and allow them to focus a little more on pass rush.
Still, the LSU offense can absolutely put up points, and Nuss will hit his share of big plays. I think about 28 points seems reasonable for this one, as the Tide holds LSU a bit below their season average, but the Tigers get in their fair share of haymakers.
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