Control of the AZ Legislature hangs in the balance as vote-counting continues

Democrats spent more money than ever in their bid to flip control of Arizona’s legislature away from Republicans, but preliminary — and partial — election results show those efforts came up short of convincing voters in swing districts to award them the levers of power at the Capitol.

Although it’s too soon to make any declarations, as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, Democrats were positioned to split the 30-member state Senate with Republicans, while the GOP maintained its slim majority in the House of Representatives.

But a lot could change in the coming days, as county elections officials count ballots overnight and throughout the week.

Seeing this year as their best opportunity to wrest legislative control from Republicans since the GOP rose to power in the mid-1960s, Democrats went all out, spending more than $10 million in a handful of battleground races.

Republicans tried to match the flood of spending by Democratic groups, managing to counter with almost $7.4 million to protect the one-seat majorities they have in each chamber.

The vast majority of that spending was concentrated in 13 races, mostly in suburban Phoenix and Tucson districts. 

And even among the battleground races, the money has been concentrated in a few contests, with the top five races accounting for nearly $10 million of that spending — and two races attracting more than $2 million in outside spending each. 

The battle for the two House seats in Chandler-based District 13 has attracted the most money from outside groups, with $2.43 million flowing into the contest. Nearly two-thirds of that — more than $1.5 million — has gone to boost Democratic newcomers Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales, with about $880,000 spent trying to persuade voters to back incumbent Republican Rep. Julie Willoughby and former GOP lawmaker Jeff Weninger.

With 91% of precincts reporting, the four candidates are separated by fewer than 1,000 votes. Reese led the field, but Weninger was just 200 votes behind her and Willoughby only about 300 votes behind him. Gonzales sat in fourth, trailing Willoughby by fewer than 450 votes.

One of the district’s representatives is currently a Democrat, making it critical for Democrats to win at least one of the seats.

And voters in north Phoenix’s District 2 have been bombarded with $2.35 million in outside spending in the Senate contest between incumbent Shawnna Bolick, a Republican, and Democratic state Rep. Judy Schwiebert. The lion’s share of that spending, more than $1.3 million, has gone to help Schwiebert, with another $1 million backing Bolick. 

While Schwiebert jumped to an early lead when initial early ballot results were reported, Bolick overtook her when ballots cast on Election Day were tallied. As of early Wednesday morning, she sat with a 180-vote lead.

But Democrats are poised to capture a southern Arizona Senate seat that has long been held by Republicans. John McLean, a former Republican, held a nearly 5,000-vote lead over Vince Leach, a former legislator, in the race to represent the suburban Tucson Legislative District 17.

Other key Senate races appeared likely to maintain the status quo, with incumbent Democrats Christine Marsh and Eva Burch fending off GOP challengers, while Republican Sens. J.D. Mesnard and T.J. Shope defended their seats — though Mesnard led Democrat Sharon Winters by only about 950 votes

In other House contests, Republicans and Democrats appeared likely to swap seats in neighboring districts. In Legislative District 16, which encompasses much of Pinal County, Democratic incumbent Keith Seaman trailed Republican Chris Lopez for the second seat by almost 700 votes. But in District 17, political newcomer Kevin Volk seemed almost certain to oust GOP Rep. Cory McGarr, who was in third place, about 1,700 votes behind his seatmate, Rep. Rachel Jones.

The Democratic incumbents in Mesa-based Legislative District 9, Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman, held a solid lead over GOP challengers Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza. And Rep. Michele Pena seemed to have defended her seat in heavily Democratic Legislative District 23, which stretches from the southwest Phoenix suburbs to Yuma.