Giving Away Money: Week 10 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Week 9: 4-3
2024: 35-22

Going to be a bit shorter edition today; I’m fighting the mother of all migraines.

Weekly Post-Mortem

Told ya’

VU is such a PITA and the ‘Dores make the most of all their opportunities. If Clark Lea isn’t COTY material, no one is. Vanderbilt could do the funniest thing if they catch Texas napping…you can practically see Sankey seething

Vandy did cover the three-scores, and if they had that first half back, they’d have won. Then again, if Alabama had their first half back, they’d have beaten Vandy too. Sigh

What tha?

I don’t think anyone saw this coming. What happened when two of the MAC’s better defenses squared off?

This season, BGSU have a defense finally, but the offense is letting them down. As a result, they’re playing a ton of close games against practically everyone. Their reward is a road trip against an archrival with one of the MAC’s best defenses.

Why, of course, a shootout entailed, as Bowling Green and Toledo played the highest scoring game in the series in almost two decades…just like we all figured, huh? LOL

Anyway, Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it during a fairly sleepy bye week.

Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet

A&M -2.5 at USCe

Computers love the Gamecocks, despite repeatedly tripping over their collective phalluses with ill-timed turnovers. The defense is simply filthy. This is the first actual physical team A&M has played since Labor Day, and it’s on the road no less, so I’m curious how the Ags will respond. They’ve mostly been playing up (and down) to their competition this year, which is a speedrun to getting you beat on the road in the SEC. Aggie won’t be able to just bully the USCe line either. They’re going to have to be able throw, a skill which Aggie have not shown they can consistently master…or even be particularly competent at. So, A&M takes their one-dimensional road show to Columbia to face one of the 2-3 best backs in the SEC and certainly one of its best defenses. If they don’t bring the A-game in Brice-Willaims, they’ll lose. But, hey, at least the cultists can grab a snippet of culture, as Cocky emerges from his coop to Also Spracht Zarathustra.

Too close to call in a ridiculously underrated environment, A&M -2.16. This is one of those games where an upset wouldn’t really be an upset, would it?

One We Like

UCLA +6 at Nebraska

We’re going to take the Huskers here, again; they’ve been quite good to us this year (told you that -21 was disrespectful as hell last week vs. the Buckeyes). Nubber have also been the model of consistency: they’re losing to whom you’d expect, and beating the teams they can. They’re also playing remarkably within the point spread margins (about 4 points at home vs. expected). So, they beat the teams they need to beat, and the Bruins are one of those teams. UCLA is a little better than their record, but the data suggest this should be a 7-10 point game, with their defensive lapses and miserable offense.

Year Two Rhule strikes again: Nebraska -9.92

One We Love

Ga. Southern +6.5 at Souf Alabama

A must-win for both teams, currently each one game back in their respective SBC divisions. Personally, I’m probably gonna lean into this one pretty heavily though for a few reasons. They both have great passing attacks, but USA also has one of the nation’s best rushing games vs. one of the country’s worst ground defenses. Ga. Southern’s ground game is…not good. South is also 3-1 ATS at home. Meanwhile GSU has been a good cover this year (5-2-1), but they’re just 3-2 S/U away from Statesboro, including a S/U loss and non-cover against the best SBC team they faced on the road (ODU). And that Old Dominion game wasn’t particularly close either (47-19). Coulda’ been a lot worse had the Monarchs not called of the dogs in the 4th and stop abusing that secondary. Bottom line: Should either be highly entertaining game…or the Jags run away with it. I don’t see GSU pulling away.

South Alabama –9.88

Underdog With Bite

Vandy +6.5 at Auburn

Alright, ‘Dores, we’re gonna trust you again — you and your 6-2 record against the spread. Sure, the Tigers quietly have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. (I know, it always surprises me too). But Barn turnovers are still a problem, and Vandy is one of the best in the SEC at picking teams off. Their offense is also a royal PITA that will test itself against an Auburn defense that’s had a relatively easy stretch of late (did we forget that they’re actually kind of trash?). The data don’t just think Vandy covers; they think the ‘Dores win outright. I’m not sure about that, but VU is expected to be the better bet; in particular pay attention to AU’s below average 3D defense, against a Commodores team atop the SEC in 3D conversions — almost 50%. I suspect that’s going to be the story of this game.

Vandy -1.81

Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention

Four-score spread in a vicious rivalry between low-scoring service academies that run the option. If -22.5 isn’t ginormous under those circumstances, nothing is.

Air Force +22.5 at Army

Part of the Commander in Chief Trophy round robin. We’ve seen one leg already: Air Force got their shot at Navy, at home in the altitude, and were utterly destroyed (34-7). This Army team is at least as good as, if not a little better, than the Middies…especially playing at West Point. If the Cadets get their chance to run it up, they will. And, give how godawful AFA’s ground defense has been, the Black Knights will likely get their shot. The underdog has covered just twice in the last 7 between these two, and Army is 3 of the last 4 at home ATS.

Army -24.30. 31-7ish sounds about right, the Cadets aren’t going to let this helmet down:

Army by elebenty.

Mortal Lock

Wisconsin +3 at Iowa

Two of the Big 10’s worst passing offenses, two of its best secondaries, two very good rushing attacks…but Wisconsin’s D-Line has been getting eaten alive on the ground. They’re giving up almost 5 YPC in conference games (and Alabama fared the best, almost 6 YPC). Against Kaleb and Co., at night in Iowa City, that’s too much to overcome (and I maintain that Kaleb is the best running back in the country). The Wiscy passing game isn’t great, but it’s a lot better than IU’s — but I don’t think they’ll see many airborne plays; they may not see the ball much at all, if the Hawkeyes get to run clock and RTDB for 40 minutes of the game. Honestly, there may not be two dozen forward passes all game total in what is functionally a contest from half a century ago between these heated rivals. This is old school football, and fans of line play, tight ends, and tasteful punting should be in heaven here. Did we mention that Ferentz has covered 80% in this series as a home favorite?

Hawkeyes it is. Iowa -7.34, something like 17-10.

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month, though with inflation, that shit is working out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.