The Real Defensive Issues: Part 2 — Alabama’s conversion defense collapses after halftime

This is the second of our two-point, data-driven analysis on what Alabama’s real problems are defensively. There have been a lot of things bandied about: Time of possession, Alabama’s pass-driven (allegedly) offense, penalties, etc. And, the simple fact is, that aside from a minor correlation with defensive penalties, none of those really are associated with the final score.

Last week, we showed you where one critical part of the problem lies: Explosive plays surrendered.

What we’re looking at here, when you put it all together is a defense that gives up about the same amount drives with explosive scores, but about 1.5 more explosive plays per drive. That is resulting in about 4 more points per game for opponents off of big games.

That suggests what your eyes probably already tell you (and which Josh tries to debunk): Momentum is real. It’s a very young defense that is going to be burned, sure. But when they give up a big play, they often have a difficult time regrouping and getting back off the field. “Historic” Alabama was able to regroup about 20% more effectively after surrendering an explosive play. This team, in a new scheme, simply has not been able to do so.

* * *

For now, you can groan inwardly every time the Tide gives up a 12-yard run or an 18-yard pass. The numbers suggest that it is merely to prologue to about 3 free points on the board for every time it happens.

The bottom line was that drives with explosive plays were in 71% of all defensive scores surrendered.

Was that evident again on Saturday, right down to more explosive gains in the second half? You betcha. Last week the Vols had 9 plays over 10 yards on the ground, or over 15 through the air: three were in the first half, six in the second (66%). Those nine plays were present in 35% of all drives, but the six second-half big plays were in five of the Vols eight second-half drives (67.5%) and helped account for the drives where 20 of the Vols 24 points scored: 83%.

Clearly, that is remains issue.

But, there is another problem, just as pressing, that the data howl as being a second-key contributor to defensive underperformance. Conversion defense. It’s a lot worse than the box scores tell you, and, I think, is probably the biggest reason for ‘Bama’s two-losses. It’s also the one that gives me the most pause because it points to as much coaching as it does execution.

So, let’s take a look at the conversion defense here. We’ve broken these down into three categories: 3rd down conversions, 4th down conversions, and drives prolonged by third/fourth-down penalties. We then arrive a true conversion defense number. 3D+4D+P / (Attempts – P) (since these are not true opportunities) = X

We look at how many points were generated off drives where forced teams to drive the field consistently by quarter, as well as the effect of halftime and defensive performance / opponent conversions

WKU

• Total 3D: 3/18
• Total 4D 2/2
• FDP (Drive extended by First Down Penalty on 3/4D): +1
• Score FDP? No
• Real Total Conversions: 6/20 (30%)
• 1H Success (3/4D allowed / Opportunities): 3/10
• 2H Success: 0/7
• Total Pts Allowed via 3/4D Drives: 0
• % of Pts Allowed: N/A

On paper, a glib analysis thinks, “Oh, Alabama kicked ass here. Just 16% allowed on third down.” But when you dig a bit deeper, you see that Alabama actually allowed double the number: 30%, when combined with successful 4th downs and penalties on 3/4th down. 30% is still awesome. And this is exactly what you want to see too — the Tide adjusting at halftime.

Enjoy it. You won’t see that very much.

USF

• Tot 3D 2/18
• Tot 4D: 0/2
• FDP: +1
• SCORE FDP? Yes
• Pts Allowed on Penalty (may overlap): 3
• Real Total Conversion: 3/20 (15%)
• 1H: 1/8
• 1H Pts Allowed on 3/4D drive: 7
• 2H: 1/10
• 2H: Pts Allowed on 3/4D Drive: 3
• Total Pts Allowed via 3/4D + 3D Penalty Drives: 13
• % of Pts Allowed: 81.25%

A good job here again by Alabama’s defense. Like WKU, it was able to minimize damage done to it in the first half, shutting out the Bulls. And, USF had a true conversion rate of just 15% instead of the stated 11% — both were great. But you see something pop up: Alabama surrendered few scoring drives, but they were almost all in the second half, most of the drives with the conversions allowed later ended with scores: These “3D success” drives accounted for 81.25% of all USF points, and big plays were in 100% of drives with points scored.

Wisconsin

• Tot 3D 3/14
• Tot 4D: 3/4
• FDP +2
• SCORE FDP? Yes
• Pts Allowed on Penalty (may overlap): 3
• Real Tot Conv: 8/18 (44%)
• 1H 1/6
• 1H Pts Allowed on 3/4D drive: 3
• 2H 2/8
• 2H Pts Allowed on 3/4D Drive: 7
• Total Pts Allowed via 3/4D + 3D Penalty Drives: 10/10
• % of Pts Allowed: 100%

Another game where Alabama’s defensive prowess was grossly overstated. It looks like Alabama shut down Wisconsin, holding them to just 22%. But, when you factor in 4th downs allowed and drives extended by penalty, it gave UW a very respectable 44% conversion rate — and that checks out. The Badgers moved the ball, the Tide was able to force TOs and several missed FGs that game however. And, again, you see the opponent having more success in the second half than the first. And, again, 100% of drives with so much as a single allowed 3D resulted in scores — but accounted for far more: 100% of UW’s points on the night.

That would presage the next two games, when Alabama was exposed, and when the wheels fell off.

Georgia

• Tot 3D 3/15
• 4D 5/5
• FDP +2
• SCORE FDP? Yes
• Pts Allowed on Penalty (may overlap): 15
• Real Tot Conv: 10/20 (50%)
• 1H: 1/5
• 1H Pts Allowed on 3/4D drive: 7
• 2H: 3/10
• 2H Pts Allowed on 3/4D Drive: 20
• Total Pts Allowed via 3/4D + 3D Penalty Drives: 27
• % of Pts Allowed: 79%

Georgia converted 50% of the time to extend drives, not 33%. And those would prove to be costly — 27 total points, and almost 80% of all the ‘Dawgs points. The non-conversion drive? A 67-yard haymaker to take the lead. And, like last week, the second-half effect really starts to jump out at you. UGA more than doubled their efficiency, keeping drives alive with 4-4 on fourth down and a decent (for SEC big game) 30% on third down…which Alabama also abetted with a defensive penalty after the break on third down.

Vanderbilt had the week off. Vanderbilt paid attention. Because what happened next week would be a magnum opus.

John David Mercer-Imagn Images

Vanderbilt

• Tot 3D 12/18
• 4D 1/1
• FDP +3
• SCORE FDP? Yes
• Pts Allowed on Penalty (may overlap): 14
• Real Tot Conv: 10/20 (84%)
• 1H 6/8
• 1H Pts Allowed on 3/4D drive: 20
• 2H 6/10
• 2H Pts Allowed on 3/4D Drive: 7
• Total Pts Allowed via 3/4D + 3D Penalty Drives: 27/40
• % of Pts Allowed: 67.5%

The numbers here are bad enough: 12 of 18 on 3rd down and 100% allowed on 4th down. But when you look at the hidden conversions by penalties in two drives, you get get a true conversion rate of 85% — and I’ve honestly never seen anything this bad in a Crimson uniform.

USCe

• Tot 3D: 7/15
• Tot 4D: 1/2
• FDP +2
• SCORE FDP? Yes
• Pts Allowed on Penalty (may overlap): 7
• Real Tot Conv: 10/20 (58.82%)
• 1H: 0/5
• 1H Pts Allowed on 3/4D drive: 0
• 2H: 7/10
• 2H Pts Allowed on 3/4D Drive: 14
• Total Pts Allowed via 3/4D + 3D Penalty Drives: 14
• % of Pts Allowed: 56%

More of the same — but, by now, the pattern is clear: This team gets worse after the break. That would be something Josh Heupel would pay attention to, and it would cost Alabama the game the following week.

Tennessee

• Tot 3D: 6/14
• Tot 4D 0/0
• FDP +2
• SCORE FDP? Yes
• Pts Allowed on Penalty (may overlap): 7
• Real Tot Conv: 10/20 (57%)
• 1H 1/5
• 1H Pts Allowed on 3/4D drive: 0
• 2H 5/7
• 2H Pts Allowed on 3/4D Drive: 21
• Total Pts Allowed via 3/4D + 3D Penalty Drives: 21
• % of Pts Allowed: 87.5%

In some ways this game was a mirror image of Georgia — Alabama success in the first half is followed by a complete collapse on 3rd and 4th down, and big play defense, in the second. You’re not beating anyone in the SEC giving up 7 of 9 by way of 3/4th down defense and penalty after the break. No one.

Second Half Adjustments: Worst Team in America?

I debated for two days on whether to frame this as harshly as a I do. But I can’t run from numbers: Alabama is perhaps the worst team in the country coming out of the locker room.

How bad are the numbers? Stark.

• Total Points Allowed: 149
• Total Second-Half Points Allowed: 107 (72%)
• 2H Conversion Points Allowed / Total Allowed: 93 (62.4%)
• Conversion Points / 2H Points Allowed: 87%

It doesn’t get clearer than that — 72% of Alabama’s scoring-allowed has come out of the locker room, and conversion defense has accounted for almost 90% of those second-half point surrendered — almost 2/3rd of all Alabama points surrendered come on drives with just a single third-down allowed in the second half.

Does some of this tie into the youth / miscommunication / bad roster fit? Absolutely. Just like the big play portion of this, when the defense gives up a play, it can’t rebound well like some other teams and then get off the field — it lets the opponent go on to score, also usually giving up a big play along the way. And, yes, some is flat-out execution. This defense lacks a true nose tackle, and the secondary is all over the place: from stingy monsters one series to absolute WAC slaw the next.

But this is also coaching. Consistently and continuously, the Alabama staff has been outcoached out of the locker room. It has been out-executed. And it has failed to adjust to the game on either side of the ball all year.

In theory, I can see what Wommack is aiming for. I like him. I’m not willing to just throw him overboard. And it may even eventually work out with a better roster (Though I doubt it. I hate the 3-3-5 for all the reasons you’ve seen this year). But execution is one thing (as in big plays surrendered), as is the mismatched personnel and other structural issues. But the piss-poor second half play and the lack of adjustments down the stretch? Those are almost solely a function of coaching.

And, frankly, it’s time to fish or cut bait: this isn’t the Sun Belt. Your ass will be in the pink slip line without some remarkably better coaching down the stretch. And we have to call a spade a spade here: this has been a very bad job from this defensive staff in meaningful contests after the break.

Because, for now, Alabama are being outclassed on the sideline.