After close to a week of models picking up the potential for a tropical system to form in the Gulf, it looks like we may see that start to happen over the next few days. The NHC has marked now marked an area of potential development in the Gulf with a 70% chance of formation over the next 7 days. Here is the current NHC outlook map:
Right now, models do not show this becoming an impressive storm. It is looking more likely that a tropical or sub-tropical system will develop, but we currently are not expecting a major hurricane out of this area. However, these forecasts do often change and the system has yet to develop- so it is important to stay updated as this outlook could change as we go through the weekend.
Here is a look at the GFS 18z run, showing a sub-tropical system in the Gulf:
Here is the EURO 12Z run, showing a slightly stronger tropical storm in the Gulf:
Again, I want to emphasize that model data will continue to change as we go through the weekend and into next week. This forecast could change, so please stay tuned as we continue to monitor the Gulf.
In other Tropics news, Kirk and Leslie remain in the Atlantic, with impacts to the US not expected (besides some swells on the East Coast this weekend). Another area of interest has been marked by the NHC as having a 30% chance of development over the next week off the Coast of Africa.
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About the Author (Author Profile)
Scott is a senior at Mississippi State University studying professional and broadcast meteorology.
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