Giving Away Money Special: Game of the Century of the Week: Alabama vs. Georgia

Here we are again — the game of the century, and it has some familiar foes, but very new faces. Alabama and Georgia meet for the first time on a friendly field since 2020.

Backdrop

Kirby’s record against Saban was well-known: just 1-5, and had Alabama not lost both of its starting wideouts, 75% of its DBs, and starting NT in the Dawgs’ lone win, then the odds are very good that he would have been skunked. Needless to say, Kirby’s record against the spread hasn’t exactly been great either. For that matter, neither has Georgia been a good bet as a favorite against the Tide overall: 2-4 the last 20 years.

This marks the fourth time since Smart’s arrival in Athens where the Dawgs have been favored. They failed to cover in two of the previous three. They were smoked in one SECCG, and were down by 17 in another before losing outright last season as well. The only favored cover the Dawgs eked out was when Alabama was playing without a safety, three corners, two 1100-yard wide receivers, and a 3rd round NFL draft pick at nose tackle. And even then it was just an 8-point game late in the 4th. And as an underdog, the Dawgs are scarce better — covering just 33% of the time.

The particularly bizarre part of this, is that for two SEC programs who forged their reputations as old’ fashioned, smash mouth running teams winning wars of attrition in the trenches, these schools have played a lot of high scoring contests. Since Kirby arrived, OVER has hit 66% of the time. And, over the last three decades, it’s almost 70% OVER on the totals (9-4).

Sometimes trends matter, and they matter not because of the teams’ play, necessarily, rather because Vegas has baited people into betting on perceptions rather than data. But we’re here to talk data, and see what we can expect on Saturday:

Alabama +1.5 vs. Georgia
6:38 P.M. DST, Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium
Over/Under 54.5

This game opened between 2.5 and 3, depending on the book. But for a game with a lot of action, the volume of wagering — and the majority of money — has been on the Tide.

That’s not just perception either; data can paint a pretty good picture of why bettors have every reason to be sanguine.

After last week’s 13-12 snuggle with Kentucky, the Dawgs have edged the Tide in SOS (29 vs. 31). That’s been aided by Clemson destroying a few bad teams in a row, and the Tide’s midmajor opponents taking some more paycheck losses.

But, for all that, the schedules are very similar, and the Tide do have some clear advantages.

Alabama’s strengths:

Jalen. Milroe. It’s really that simple. Milroe has been a big play machine, running or passing. His efficiency numbers are 50 points higher than Carson Beck. He’s thrown more tuddies. He is averaging 3 full yards more per attempt than Beck. And he has a deeper talent pool to throw to. To say nothing of his legs, where he’s dropped another half-dozen rushing touchdowns.

Last season, UGA had two spies on Milroe at game’s end and still could not stop him getting yards and crucial first downs. He’s even better this season, with a far better offensive line than he’s played with at any other time. Especially on the inside, Alabama is a hella’ nasty line.

The result is that Alabama has the better per-play offense, better opponent-adjusted offense, the far more explosive offense, and even better offensive line stats — to say nothing of better skills players. UGA lost a ton of talent in the passing game, and a lot of quality depth in the backfield, and it shows.

Surprisingly, however, ‘Bama also has the better per-play opponent-adjusted defense. It has been the better secondary across the board (though there have definitely been some propitious misses by opposing teams). Teams are finding it very hard to throw on the Tide — and they’ve tried an average of 36 times per game.

There are other factors the militate towards ‘Bama though. They’re healthier, for a start. They’re home, which always helps. They have the best return defense in the country. And they have the field position weapon in James Burnip. In games against teams with winning records, Burnip is averaging 50.60 yards per kick.

And, there’s the simple element of surprise. While KDB has an offensive system, it’s very eclectic and has been tweaked from year to year at both Fresno State and Washington. But this season, ‘Bama has shown almost nothing of what the scheme will look like in meaningful games. There’s simply no way to plan for what Alabama will do with Milroe in the offense, and what looks the staff are going to throw at Smart. I promise you, there will be quite a few that are very different than any we’ve seen so far.

Finally, there’s the aggression factor. Smart rarely faces super aggressive teams willing to target that two-deep look a dozen times a game. The last time he did so, Ohio State rang them up like a dinner bell. And this year, the Dawgs haven’t seen it at all. There’s simply no way to simulate Ryan Williams in practice, the multiple options that ‘Bama has on each play, and then what Milroe can do when the play breaks down.

And DeBoer is an aggressive coach, playing with house money. His opposite number has all the pressure in the world, while there is literally none on this Tide team.

Georgia’s Strengths

It’s not the like Bulldogs are trash here. Georgia has been hammered the last few years with arrests, departures, NFL hemorrhaging, coaching exoduses, and now injuries. Through it all, they’ve managed to stay atop college football. But this year may be the most vulnerable they’ve been too.

The UGA running game isn’t as dynamic as in years past. But it remarkably consistent. Both of these teams average nearly 6 YPC. And while the Tide have had home run balls, the Dawgs have gotten there by repeatedly pounding teams; their strength is still the line play. Alabama has been get-got on the ground by concerted rushing attacks.

The Tide have faced two run-first offenses in Wisconsin and USF. While Alabama was able to make them one-dimensional, it came at the expense of the ground defense. Both of those teams rushed for 140+, with USF getting to 209. The Tide aren’t giving up huge chunk plays — they’re averaging just 3.48 YPC allowed, but they’ve been susceptible to running games.

The lack of serious weapons in the passing game may not matter if the Dawgs are able to stomp out 4-5 yards a pop on the ground.

That leads us to two other serious strengths for UGA: Drive efficiency. Both in sustaining drives and in preventing them, Georgia has been the better team. They’ve not faced two dynamic offenses that play at pace, or that threaten you with the passing game. But still, UGA has allowed just two plays over 20 yards all season, while defensively facing just 173 snaps — which is nothing short of incredible.

It shows up offensively, as well. UGA is tops in the nation in RZ conversions: 100%. They’ve not been great at getting into the endzone (just 54%, 88th with a gross 5 RZ field goals). But they don’t come away with empty drives. ‘Bama has been far less efficient down there — just 82%. But when they do get in danger territory, they’ve been better cashing it in the endzone (82%) (They’ve also been far better at RZ defense, allowing just 28% conversion rate).

UGA also has the obvious advantage in the placekicking game — perfect on the year, with a long of 53. Alabama has not been so great, as Nicholson doesn’t have Will’s leg, and was notoriously iffy from beyond 40 last season at Miami-OH.

Finally, there’s just the calculus of big game experience. DeBoer may treat every game the same. But for Kirby, he’s coached in probably half-a-hundred of these high stakes, all-eyes games as a coordinator. He spent a decade-plus under Nick Saban. He’s coached (and won) his own championship games. He knows how to press the right buttons, how to prepare, and what the stakes mean. That’s invaluable.

Bottom Line

At the end of the day, the data are what the data are. On a neutral field, UGA is favored in this game and likely wins it by a FG — according to the numbers. But that’s not what we have here.

This is probably the weakest we’ve seen Georgia since 2015 (grading on their elite curve, of course.) Carson Beck isn’t going to lose games for the ‘Dawgs. He’s accurate, smart, and generally doesn’t get rattled. But he doesn’t add that extra dimension that Jalen Milroe does. It’s a more convenient offense for Wommack to scheme for, with far fewer weapons than UGA has had since Kirby arrived.

Meanwhile, UGA has to prepare for one of the nation’s most explosive players and most dangerous attacks, one that targets every level of the field. Elite speed, and teams taking the top off of it, have long-been his Achilles heel. And if those linebackers turn their back to the play? Milroe has been given far more of a green light to scoot this year. He will run.

Georgia is going to get some drives. Count on that. And Alabama will be unable to stop them between the 20s at times. The key for ‘Bama will be to force field goals, while the Tide tries to keep the Dawgs D off-balance and hammer them with elite speed and scheming and forcing coverage busts.

It’s a new look, for sure. But it’s going to come down to the same ole’ secret sauce — prevent turnovers, get off the field on third down, make big plays, play tough, win the line of scrimmage.

And the data simply like ‘Bammer in an “upset” here..as long as it doesn’t require kicking. No pressure, Graham.

Numbers Say: Alabama -1.61, Over 54.5