Alabama football expected to roll over Wisconsin

Happy Friday, everyone. Tomorrow morning, Alabama has a breakfast date with a Wisconsin team that they are supposed to beat handily. Your previews:

Alabama’s offensive line has been banged up, which hasn’t helped quarterback Jalen Milroe’s all-or-nothing tendencies. Under a new coaching regime, Milroe is still Milroe: He’s still throwing downfield a ton; he’s still making lots of big plays via air and ground; and he’s still taking lots of sacks.

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Milroe has quite the big-play crew around him — backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes average 9.4 yards per carry, and receivers Kobe Prentice, Germie Bernard and freshman Ryan Williams average 22.1 yards per catch. But with all those weapons, the Tide were still in a dogfight with USF. If the Badgers can manage the explosions, this could be an interesting one. If they can’t, well, Camp Randall’s always a good time regardless.

Current line: Bama -15 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 23.0

The Badgers have won five of their past seven games played in September and they held South Dakota to just three points in the first half in last week’s victory. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke completed 17-of-27 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown in the 27-13 win. Running back Cade Yacamelli led the team in rushing, finishing with eight carries for 73 yards.

Senior RB Chez Mellusi is Wisconsin’s work horse, having already racked up 35 carries for 134 yards and three touchdowns. He scored twice against South Dakota and he’ll need to be effective for Wisconsin to be able to control the clock against an explosive Alabama offense on Saturday.

“For Wisconsin, my top key is containing a star like Jalen Milroe. Star safety Hunter Wohler for the Badgers called Milroe a top-five QB in the nation. And I think he’s a really good player. I think that was very complimentary. I believe he’s got nine touchdowns and no interceptions so far. Nine total touchdowns. So obviously he’s likely going to get his, whether through the air or on the ground. But you’ve got to try to limit that. I think this is a major opportunity for some of the outside linebackers for Wisconsin — Darryl Peterson, Leon Lowery Jr., Aaron Witt. That’s a major key for me. That’s probably No. 1.

This will be the Crimson Tide’s first visit to a Big Ten school for a nonconference game since 2011, when they won 27-11 at Penn State. A stout Badgers run game can keep things close for a while, but Alabama’s depth prevails. Alabama 34, Wisconsin 20

Alabama came out as the projected outright winner in an overwhelming 92 percent of the computer’s simulations for the game, while Wisconsin wins out in the remaining 8 percent of sims.

The index projects that Alabama will by 23 points better than Wisconsin on the same field, enough to cover the spread.

Alabama is third among SEC teams with a 79.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the index, and is projected to win 10.3 games this season.

Wisconsin will win 5.3 games in head coach Luke Fickell’s second full season, and sits fourth-worst in the Big Ten with a 0.8 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, according to the model.

Hummer (Alabama -15.5) — Wisconsin isn’t easing into Big Ten play, huh? The Badgers have looked anything but explosive offensively early this year, though part of that is looking a bit vanilla ahead of this game. But this is just a difficult matchup for the Badgers, who just don’t have the type of speed on offense (or really even the o-line this year to bully) Alabama. If the Tide’s o-line can find some sort of consistency – a big issue last week against USF – I like them to cover. … Alabama 38, Wisconsin 21.

Jalen Milroe. The Alabama quarterback wasn’t needed too much in the WKU win, he kicked it in against USF, and on the year the big bombing passer has yet to throw a pick, and he has yet to crank up his ground game ability, even with four rushing scores.

The early start matters. Camp Randall Stadium will be rocking, it’ll take about a quarter for the student section will fully file in. By that time, Bama will be up enough on two great opening drives, and Wisconsin’s offense won’t have an answer.

The Badger passing game won’t be good enough.

Alabama 34, Wisconsin 16

Mark Stewart

This will be a great measuring stick for the Badgers heading into Big Ten play. I know there are questions about the Wisconsin defensive front, but I wonder how the offense will fare. UW, which had 28 points in Week 1 and 27 points in Week 2, has a lot to prove on that side of the ball. That said I think the Badgers will be competitive at home. Alabama 27, Wisconsin 17.

JR Radcliffe

Like a lot of people, I don’t think the Badgers will beat Alabama. The lingering dissenting voice in my head thinks, anecdotally, that UW’s outcomes in recent years often seem to run counter to expectations, in a good way and bad way. Maybe Alabama has the same lethargic-by-their-standards first half that they had against South Florida, and Wisconsin pounces? Maybe UW finds a way to bring its strong fourth-quarter showings to all four quarters? Maybe UW makes the necessary tweaks to at least limit the run game? Maybe, but probably not. Alabama 35, Wisconsin 10.

I typically like to find a take or two from behind enemy lines, and as such that last link is from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

It’s still quite early in the season, and it feels like we don’t yet know much about this Alabama team. In one game the offense was so explosive they couldn’t get reps in, then in the next game it was downright putrid for a long stretch. The offensive line has been substandard even against lower level competition, but we also haven’t yet seen the expected starting five in action for even a snap. Penalties have been a huge problem for the team.

The defense has looked quite strong overall. There was some valid concern about receivers getting behind the secondary last week, but that has been the only chink in the armor. I’m not sure that Wisconsin has the ability to expose that issue if it does continue. In two games against Western Michigan and South Dakota, the Badgers have passed for only 406 yards on 63 attempts, and 50 of those came on a gadget play. Unless they are hiding something, this is a legitimately bad passing team.

It’s hard to imagine a one dimensional offense having much success against Alabama’s front seven. Their defense has been solid and may well be able to make things uncomfortable for Milroe for a while, but I don’t see this one being close in the second half. Unlike Wisconsin, Alabama has shown an ability to make enough explosive plays to put points on the board.

Let’s call this one 34-13 in favor of the good guys. Of course, that is simply my opinion. Vote and give us yours in the comments.

In other news, the Jags had themselves a day.

South Alabama scored on 11 of 13 drives, failing to put points on the board only on a missed 50-yard field goal in the second quarter and on the last possession of the game when they were running out the clock. According to ESPN Stats & Information, South Alabama’s 87 points were the most scored by an FBS team in the 21st century, since Fresno State beat New Mexico 94-17 on Oct. 5, 1991.

Last, Tua Tagovailoa suffered yet another concussion last night, which is not good. Multiple NFL players are urging him to consider retirement.

“It’s so sad, guy just got paid,” Pro Football Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez said on Prime Video’s postgame show in the immediate aftermath of Miami’s loss.

“It was great to be Tua, and it is great to be Tua. However I’m looking at these concussions,” Gonzalez continued, “if I’m him, at this point, I’m seriously considering retiring from football. If that was my son, I would be like, ‘It might be time.’ This stuff is not what you want to play around with.

That decision will be up to him and his family. We all hope to see him doing his thing on the football field again, but health comes first. May he heal and suffer minimal long term effects.

That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.

Roll Tide.