With today being a Sunday, we have an entire slate of day games to dive into. With the first pitch scheduled for 11:35 a.m. ET, there is no time to waste!
So, without further ado, let’s dive right into our favorite MLB home run picks of the day.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+320) Bet365
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:10 p.m. ET
Ohtani is one of the hottest batters on the planet, and it is rare that we get him above the low +200s, let alone in the +300s. The reason why, of course, is because the Rays are throwing a lefty on the mound in Jacob Lopez. As good as Ohtani is, he does not hit as well against lefties as he does righties.
With that said, this will be Lopez’s first time pitching in the majors since May 5, and he has only made three appearances in MLB this season. Unfortunately for Lopez, he did not pitch well in his limited time and was sent back down to the minors after his May 5 appearance. He only pitched five innings total that night, but he got rocked in those five innings.
He also has not pitched more than three innings in a single game this year, so Ohtani may only get one at-bat against him. The good news is that the Rays bullpen has allowed the third-most home runs of any bullpen in baseball, so even if Ohtani does not take Lopez yard early, he should still have ample chances to later in the game.
As for Ohtani, as mentioned previously, he is red-hot at the plate. Not only has he hit a home run in two straight games, but overall he has the fourth-most HardHit line-drive + fly-balls over the past seven days, with nine total. He has hit both righties and lefties hard over the past two weeks as well, so there is no hiding from him. He is a great value bet to hit a home run at the +320 odds.
Jose Ramirez Home Run (+420) Bet365
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians, 1:40 p.m. ET
Ramirez was on a little bit of a home run slump over the past couple weeks, but it looks as though he is getting past that, with a home run and another hit yesterday. He had two HardHits overall, with a launch angle of 30.6 degrees, which is perfectly in the sweet spot for home runs.
Overall, Ramirez is having a phenomenal year, so a minor slump is nothing to be scared off of either. He has hit the sixth-most home runs on the year with 33, with the 11th-best ISO rate in the league at .257. He is one of only 11 batters with an ISO rate above .250, which FanGraphs defines as “excellent.”
Ramirez has been able to hit so many home runs because of his ability to put the ball in the air. He has the 10th-highest launch angle in the league (19.6 degrees) and the seventh-highest fly-ball rate (48.7%).
Ramirez is also slightly better against left-handed pitching, which is what he will be facing tonight. His ISO rate against LHP is .340, up from .226 against RHP. For reference, that is the fourth-highest ISO rate in MLB as well.
Rangers LHP Cody Braford has only pitched 43 innings and allowed five home runs, but all five came against right-handed batters, which Ramirez will be batting tonight.
Elly De La Cruz Home Run (+450) Caesars
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 1:40 p.m. ET
While we went with De La Cruz yesterday and he did not come through for us, he has still been hitting the ball very hard. Today, he has an excellent matchup, so we are comfortable riding with him once again.
Despite not going yard yesterday, De La Cruz is still third in the league with 10 HardHit line-drive + fly-balls, one more than Ohtani. Yesterday alone, De La Cruz had two HardHits with an average exit velocity of 97.4 mph, he just did not quite have the launch angle to send them over the fence. Luckily, he has been putting the ball in the air over the past week, so there is not a ton of concern there.
De La Cruz is similar to Jose Ramirez in that he is a switch-hitter. The key difference is that De La Cruz is much better batting from the left side against right-handed pitching, the opposite of Ramirez. De La Cruz’s ISO rate against RHP is .276, all the way up from .138 against LHP.
As for the pitching matchup, he is going up against Luis L. Ortiz of the Pirates, a righty who struggles against LHH, immensely. Ortiz has seen fewer lefty bats than righties, but despite that he has allowed 10 of his 12 home runs to LHH. His HR/9 against LHH is 2.01, up from 0.32 against RHH.
For context, that is the fourth-worst HR/9 against lefties in the MLB.
Honorable Mention: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+680) FanDuel
Before heading out for the day, here is a dart-throw honorable mention that we really like for today as well. Crow-Armstrong is quietly on fire recently. Like Ohtani, he has homered in back-to-back games.
He is a left-handed hitter with a dream matchup against a young Marlins pitcher who really struggles against lefties, Adam Oller. Small sample size, but in 12 at-bats against lefties this year, he has given up two home runs with a 25% barrel rate, 63% HardHit rate and 63% fly-ball rate. Crow-Armstrong is a great play at these odds.
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