The field for the 2025 NCAA Tournament is set and, if the selection committee is to be believed, it should run through Auburn.
The Tigers (28-5) earned the top overall seed thanks to a stellar regular season that saw them top the ultra-competitive SEC.
Auburn may have fallen short in the SEC Tournament, but its resume was already strong enough to vault them ahead of the other No. 1 seeds in the field.
The Duke Blue Devils (31-3) were tabbed as the second-overall seed, with Houston (30-4) and Florida (30-4) nabbing the other two No. 1 seeds in the 68-team field.
Twenty-five of the past 39 champions were a No. 1 seed and last year’s championship featured two number-ones in UConn and Purdue, so history tells us to ignore these heavyweights at your own peril if you’re playing in pools.
But which heavyweight should you build your strategy around? And which should you stay away from? Let’s answer those questions below:
Auburn Tigers (+500)
They may be the top seed in the field, but Auburn is the third-favorite to win the NCAA Tournament behind Duke and Florida.
It may sound counterintuitive for the “best” team in the bracket to be the third-favorite, but it’s worth noting that the Tigers were 30/1 to win the National Championship when this market opened, and are nowhere near as popular a team as Duke when it comes to the betting public.
The Tigers are ranked as the No. 4 seed in KenPom’s power rankings, but the difference between Auburn and the three teams ahead of it is negligible.
Throw in a less troublesome path than a couple of the other No. 1 seeds and it feels safe to jot down Bruce Pearl’s Tigers for a deep run in your bracket.
Duke Blue Devils (+290)
The Blue Devils were the wire-to-wire betting favorite to win the national hampionship, though their odds did drift a little when Cooper Flagg got hurt early in the ACC Tournament.
Duke still managed to win the ACC, and Flagg is expected to feature in the Blue Devils’ first-round game.
The Blue Devils went 21-10 against the spread (ATS) and enter the tournament on an 11-game winning streak.
The price is too short at this point, but it’s hard to see the Blue Devils getting tested until deep into the dance.
Houston Cougars (+650)
The Houston Cougars answered every question asked of them in 2024-25. They topped the Big 12, won the conference tournament, and are red-hot with 13 wins on the bounce coming into March Madness.
That said, it’s a bit risky to back the Cougars at this price given their path. Gonzaga is the No. 8 seed in Houston’s bracket and has a sparkling statistical profile for a team ranked that low. KenPom has the Zags as the ninth-best team in the country.
Buyer beware.
Betting on College Basketball?
Florida Gators (+390)
The newly crowned SEC Champs are priced as the second-favorite and are the No. 2 team behind Duke in KenPom’s power rankings, but it is surprising to see Florida as the second-favorite given the path.
Not only does Florida have a potential date with UConn, the two-time defending champions, in Round 2, but Maryland is getting steam as a dark horse, too.
The Gators are one of the best teams in the country, but this path seems too daunting to build your bracket around them.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by PostX News and is published from a syndicated feed.)
