2024 Giving Away Money: Week 5 picks against the spread to enhance your filthy lucre

Week 4: 4-1
2024: 16-8

It was a weekend of upsets across much of the country, but math keeps winning, bros. And that’s what we do around these parts, and have for a decade now.

Let’s dive in.

Told ya’:

The Hawkeyes won’t be able to throw against UMN. They likely won’t need to even need to try much: Minnesota has been gotten on the ground, which is exactly what the Hawkeyes want to hear.

Iowa rushed for almost 300 yards, and stud RB Kaleb Johnson logged 206 on 21 carries, with three tuddies. Iowa passed for 62 yards, as the Hawkeyes kept it on the ground nearly 70% of the time in an easy road cover.

What the?

We only lost one game last week, and it was one with a bit of a rider on the modeling. But here it is:

Heupel has been notoriously awful against running teams and in road games. The Sooners are both at home and have a great rushing attack. Say some prayers, Dirt Burglars Oklahoma wins the battle, but maybe loses the war. OU +.44.

If the Sooners had a QB, they win that game. But if wishes were fishes, we’d all cast nets. The Vawls looked very mortal last week, as they often do on the road.

Alright folks, you you know the drill. It’s ‘Bama – UGA week, and I threw y’all a freebee for that game over here (link below). Though, I will say that you’ve got a lot bigger balls than I do if you take that action on either side of the line.

But today we have half a dozen games to go through: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.

Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.

Not With a Ten-Foot Pole and a Stolen Wallet:

Ohio State 24.5 at Michigan State

This marks the first time that the Buckeyes have played a Power 5 team or have left the State of Ohio. And they’re doing both at once. Sparty can be dangerous if you let them take the top off of it. To date, no one has really challenged that entirely rebuilt secondary, so the option is there to test OSU early. MSU has been very turnover prone, costing them one game, and finishing minus against every FBS team they’ve played. But on the other hand, the Bucks haven’t been great at forcing them — even with that shit schedule, and haven’t secured a TO in two games against bad competition. One of those trends has to end here, right? Probably OSU’s forced turnover drought. Jonathan Smith was great as a home ‘dog at Oregon State. He’ll have them ready to play, despite the talent disparity. And, OSU does have a new QB facing his first sort-of live fire. Still, this is probably too many to chance on either side of the ledger: either the Buckeyes blow them out, or Sparty makes this uncomfortable.

Data lean “blowout-ish” but since we know nothing about the Buckeyes, any number makes me nervous. -OSU -19.51

One We Like:

Va. Tech +17 at Miami

So much for that “darkhorse ACC title contender.” The Hokies have been a tire fire this year. They commit about a billion turnovers, they can’t run the ball consistently. The secondary has been abused. And even worse, they can’t stop the run — and Miami is an absolute machine who loves to pound the rock. Cristobal has done a much better job closing it out against soft opponents this year. This is one such opponent. If this game happens, and it may not, take the Canes.

All about tha’ U -19.47

One We Love:

Utah -13 vs. Arizona

The ‘Cats are going to have a ridiculously tough time stopping Utah’s ground attack. This is the first game where Utah’s secondary will have to work a bunch, but it’s also one of the nation’s best in baiting bad throws. And it’s much hyped, but it is true: This could be a contest where the altitude actually makes a difference as well. ‘Zona is probably going to airmail some throws, and conditioning is a problem going from sea level to 5000 feet. Finally, at the end of the day, the Wildcats are just soft as hell. Utah? Not so much.

Utes -14.83

Photo by Bruce Yeung/Getty Images

Underdog With Bite

New Mexico -9 at New Mexico State

God, this game is going to suck out loud. The Lobos are bad, sure. But they’re “bad with some bright spots.” The Aggies have just been bad-bad. Sanchez was a hurried replacement for Jerry Kill, and it shows. He was a bad coach at UNLV, and he’s been bad in Las Cruces. For our purposes though, there’s a more important stat: he was 5-13 as a home ‘dog in Vegas. That said, this is probably too many. NSMU has been very game as a home dog (and they covered their lone home underdog spread this year, against Liberty). The Ags still do have some talent, there’s at least continuity (Sanchez was WRC/Co-OC last season, He’s also an alum; this one is meaningful). And at the end of the day, these are way, way too many points for a rivalry that the Aggies have covered 8 of the last 10.

Take the home team. NSMU +3.38

Ginormous Spread Worth Your Attention

We are now in conference play, so ginormous is going to be a shrinking number most weeks. Nevertheless, we were able to find a nice four-touchdown game for you.

Memphis -26 vs. Middle Tennessee

The Tigers are going to absolutely blast this awful Blue Raiders team. Someone has to pay for their failure to prepare for the option…again. It may as well be Mighty Mitzu. MTSU has the worst efficiency secondary in the country. They allow over 10 yards per attempt. They were even torched by Tenn. Tech. They’ve given up 30 plays over 30 yards…and even half a dozen over 50. MTSU is 0-fer covers against the FBS, and is underperforming by 14.5 PPG. Meanwhile, UM has the nation’s 7th best passing offense and puts it up 43 times a game. Guess what’s probably going to happen? Of all the big spreads this week (and there aren’t many,) this seems to track as the best one.

Tigers are 3-1 ATS, BTW, and perfect in the Liberty Bowl. Memphis -33.43

Mortal Lock

TBH, I don’t feel great about most of the games this week. Though, I do like the numbers and trends and hunches a bit better on some. This is one of them.

Tulsa +6.5 at North Texas

The Golden Hurricane have one of the worst secondaries in the country. The Mean Green throw the ball 40 times a game, and average 340 yards in the air, at breakneck tempo. UNT is also home. That is generally a bad combination. UNT’s defense is terrible, but it doesn’t matter much if they’re running 80 plays a game and scoring 40+. Tulsa could offset a lot of their deficits with an equally potent offense that they simply do not possess.

People also overlook the “swinging dick” high school-to-college coaching attitude that permeates the state’s programs. These guys grew up with Houston dropping 70 on people and the high scoring shootouts of the SWC. They cut their teeth at Southlake Carroll, Permian Basin, etc. They love going airborne and they love ringing people up if they smell blood in the water. And if they can cover, they will — you’ll rarely find a midmajor Lonestar team taking the air out of the ball and shortening the game.

North Texas -9.12

Alright, that’s a fork in Week 5. Go forth and prosper, and we’ll see you next week.

And be very safe this weekend, you folks in the East. Helene is a killer.

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month, though with inflation, that shit is working out to about $3.13 a month for me these days. Womp. Womp.